Just as we identified in last month’s regime – and as our asset allocation model predicted -, risk assets have indeed performed. Question is if they will continue to. As always, we present our model framework on how to structure your portfolio.
Something for your Espresso: 2024 consensus doesn’t add up
The 2024 consensus is getting very bullish on US growth, while nothing is happening outside of US shores. Meanwhile, markets see all major markets converging towards a 2-2.5% inflation range. Feasible?
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5 Things We Watch – Freight Rates, Positioning, Liquidity, EUR-flation, Growth
Limited upside in the ISM Manufacturing index as we await a dovish EUR-flation number coming in on Friday. There are plenty of things to look at in the global macro landscape this week.
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5 Things That Could Wrongfoot Consensus in 2024
We round off 2023 with some what-ifs that could wrongfoot consensus in 2024. And maybe they are not as unlikely as current market pricing indicates.
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Macro Regime Indicator: Heavy long in cyclical FX
Just as most tabloid models forecasted a near-0% chance of a recession within the next year, markets reacted in stark contrast. Can the recent broad based selloff and the following and current rally be explained by developments in liquidity, inflation, or growth?
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Macro Regime Indicator: PMIs to drive price action together with headline inflation
We have entered a macro regime where PMIs and headline inflation outpace liquidity in importance. The pick-up in Manufacturing PMIs paired with the potential higher headline inflation provides some interesting guidance for portfolio managers.
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Something for your Espresso: Important growth- and inflation gauges are out
Watch ISM Manufacturing and European inflation this week. Another test of the January/February narrative of higher activity and higher prices.
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