Limited upside in the ISM Manufacturing index as we await a dovish EUR-flation number coming in on Friday. There are plenty of things to look at in the global macro landscape this week.
We round off 2023 with some what-ifs that could wrongfoot consensus in 2024. And maybe they are not as unlikely as current market pricing indicates.
Just as most tabloid models forecasted a near-0% chance of a recession within the next year, markets reacted in stark contrast. Can the recent broad based selloff and the following and current rally be explained by developments in liquidity, inflation, or growth?
We have entered a macro regime where PMIs and headline inflation outpace liquidity in importance. The pick-up in Manufacturing PMIs paired with the potential higher headline inflation provides some interesting guidance for portfolio managers.
Watch ISM Manufacturing and European inflation this week. Another test of the January/February narrative of higher activity and higher prices.