Good morning from Europe

GDP consensus is moving NOWHERE for China, Japan, EU and UK .. They all remain stuck at sub-trend growth levels with no signs of a pick-up in sentiment or momentum.

Meanwhile, US GDP consensus for 2024 has basically tripled since the early autumn of 2023 and the gap is approaching 2%-points versus peers such as the UK and the EU

Meanwhile, inflation consensus is converging around all of the BoJ, ECB, BoE and Fed ending up with a 2-2.5% inflation trajectory even if the gap has closed a little from above with UK and EU inflation higher than US and JP inflation in forecasts until lately.

Can the US outgrow peers by 2%-points without a meaningful inflation gap versus the same peers?

I TRULY doubt it, and the best bet is probably to trade an increased inflation spread between the US and European peers and/or a cyclical upswing in non-US GDP growth.

Chart 1a: GDP 2024 consensus forecast

Chart 1b: GDP 2024 consensus forecast