We, just like Goldman Sachs and many others, have been caught off guard in China over the past year. Here’s why
ECB Bank Loan Survey Nugget: Tight supply and even less demand
Today we had the Bank Loan Survey from the ECB, and the numbers say a great deal. Gloomy worries leave Euro Area banks hesitant about providing or extending credit, but, just as telling, demand is nowhere to be seen. Our main takeaways here.
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EM BY EM #17 China: Real Estate Complex and the “phony” stimulus
In 2021, I took a bearish position in the Chinese real estate market. However, the scale of the repercussions stemming from the ongoing deleveraging process in Chinese real estate has raised our concerns. Despite this, we believe that the CCP will likely need to intervene in the near term to address the situation
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Bank Funding Watch: The lender of ‘favorite’ resort?
Emergency lending facilities provided by the Federal Reserve, and the BTFP in particular, relieved banks in distress and helped them stay afloat, but are the same risks still lurking or has the need for funding eased?
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European Deposits: US turmoil on tour?
Several US regional banks fell victim to the waning confidence from depositors who ultimately pulled the plug. Are European banks really safeguarded by better legislation, or are we taking comfort in a false sense of security?
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5 Things We Watch: Banks, Liquidity, Debt Ceiling, Euro Area Positivity and USD Strength
Midweek has arrived and that calls for a rundown of the five things we watch the closest. As is the custom every Wednesday, we will take you through these most important themes (and charts) in macro and summarize how we interpret them.
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Money Watch: Your favorite liquidity proxy is about to become drier than a Martini
The banking-storm has calmed down a bit and the small banks’ share of total deposits has regained some territory in recent weeks. However, if fixed income losses continue to weigh down on balance sheets, then we cannot rule out more stories of banks in trouble. For now though, it would seem the FED intervention has idled the turmoil.
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CRE Watch: Illiquid trouble stuck on the books
As the banking stress has waned in news value, commercial real estate has taken over the baton. In this article, we’ll try and sort fact from fiction and wisen up on what is really moving beneath the surface.
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Equity watch: Fire-sale or Outright Fire in US Bank Stocks
What a couple weeks! Confidence in the US banking system has been under immense stress, and some contagion crossed the Atlantic and struck Europe as well. Triggered by a casino in disguise, the troubles have for now been backstopped, but is further distress lurking beneath the surface?
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Something for your Espresso: While we are waiting for the next shoe to drop
Calm is temporarily restored while First Republic Bank continues to suffer. Tech and Consumer Discretionary are underperformers when the calm is restored. The world is truly upside down right now.
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Something for your Espresso: Is the ECB even aware of the banking crisis in the US?
The US inflation print yesterday would have been a CLEAR 50bp data print, but markets and we remain convinced that the credit event will force the Fed to rethink. The ECB is, on ther other hand, not awake yet.
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