While all the hype in EM is about China these days, we are healthy skeptics. We’d like to see Beijing adopt a more structural approach to truly win us over, similar to what they’re doing in Turkey
EM by EM #32: Keep calm & Carry Lira?
Turkey is teetering on the edge of normalization, but the Lira’s stability remains in jeopardy as Erdogan manages a difficult situation, albeit from a reasonably advantageous position.
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EM by EM #19 The Simsek Effect kicking in?
The Turkish central bank hiked the interest rates by 750 basis points against the market expectations of 200 bp underlying this month and both stocks & lira rallied on the back of it. Where is the Turkey case heading from here? Read our view here
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Something for your Espresso: No help for commodities from China (yet)
China’s export/import activity is telling for the global economy and commodities remain a sell. Meanwhile, the TRY is getting annihilated despite Erdogan’s attempts to restore economic credibility.
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Steno Signals #51 – Bye bye inflation, hello lay-offs? Here is what to trade..
When headline inflation wanes fast, real wages grow, while corporate profits shrink. This is now the base case for H2-2023 while Chinese and Turkish political developments MUST be watched from a macro perspective. Here is why!
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EM by EM #7 Is Turkey to TRY a pivot?
As the Lira is trying to outcompete the depreciation of the Venezuelan Bolivar and the volatility of dogecoin, we provide our view and assessment of the near-term impact of Erdogan’s narrow victory. Markets were not impressed by the outcome but will the skepticism remain the prevailing narrative?
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Something for your Espresso: The G7 doves are coooooooing!
The G10 central banks coordinately called the peak in global inflation after the Davos gathering earlier this year and now BoJs Ueda has hinted that central banks agreed at the G7 meeting that they should patiently wait and see for the effects on already implemented. The doves are cooing!
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Turkish Election Liveblog
Erdogan or Kilicdaroglu? Turkey heads to the polls and we are following every step of the way!
Turkey Election Watch #3 Final Predictions Ahead of our Election Night Live Blog
The Turkey Election Watch Series will culminate on election day, May 14th and 15th – READ OUR LATEST PREDICTIONS BEFORE ELECTION NIGHT. Steno Research launches our very own Turkey Election Live Blog. We will provide you with live updates, key trends and analyses from the election while results tick in.
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Türkiye Election Watch: Erdogan’s Swan Song?
Geopolitically, no election can contest the significance of the dual Turkish Presidential and Parliament elections this year. President Erdogan has never lost an election (national, local or referendum) in his 21 year reign, but right now polls predict a toss-up between him and the opposition coalition. We are following the campaign trail with an eagle’s-eye, and are giving you the key insights in our new Turkey Election Watch Series. Come along for the ride.
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The Great Game #10 – Qurans for Fighter Jets?
Who would have thought that a single Danish alt-right incel burning a book in Stockholm would have geopolitical consequences? Well, that is 2023 for you!
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The Great Game #3 – Ulf Kristersson, the Swedish Circus Artist
Why is Turkey stalling the inclusion of Finland and Sweden into NATO? How long will they hold up the ratifying process? And should the Swedish PM, Ulf Kristersson, apply for a gig at Cirque du Soleil?
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The Great Game #2 – Rise of the Turks
Forget all about the Saudi-Iran Cold War or the Palestinian question. The real agenda of the Middle East is the rise of the Turkic countries and the ascent of Turkey to Great Power status
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