Türkiye Election Watch: Erdogan’s Swan Song?
Geopolitically, no election can contest the significance of the dual Turkish Presidential and Parliament elections this year. Incumbent president Recep Erdogan has never lost an election (national, local or referendum) in his 21 year reign, but right now polls predict a toss-up between him and the opposition coalition called ‘Nation Alliance’. The countdown is on to May 14th! We are following the campaign trail with an eagle’s-eye, and are giving you the key insights in our new Turkey Election Watch Series. Come along for the ride.
If you are not fully up-to-date with the state of Turkish politics, this first edition is for you. We will give you the full overview of the political parties, latest polls, key issues and recent electoral rule changes that makes this year’s ballot particularly mouth-watering. As we get closer to the election, we will dive deeper into the challenges facing the top candidates and the issues deciding Turkey’s future.
Parliamentary Election Poll (Average)
The presidential party, AKP, is still looking like they will be the biggest party in the Turkish parliament according to the polls, but the advantage has been eroding gradually since spring 2020.
In 2018, parties would have to gain at least 10% of the vote share to get into parliament. However, a recent electoral rule change has lowered the threshold to 7% meaning that Erdogan’s # 1 support party, MPH, will just make the cut, if the latest polls hold true.
All in all, it’s still a two-horse race, but with the prospect of a much more diverse parliament in the coming period.