The Chinese apparent copper consumption is absolutely on the floor, while the copper market is turning bid again. Is the Chinese consensus getting too upbeat again? And how will it market in the West during the summer?
Something for your Espresso: A wedge in between the Chinese consumer- and producer..
China is exporting inflation again as the industrial production complex is starting to fire on all cylinders. Meanwhile, the consumer remains pessimistic in China and RE woes will leave CNY rates low.
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Explainer: the 3 faces of Chinese consumer pessimism
The Li Keqiang Index witnessed its most robust monthly surge since 2005 but consumer confidence is rotten?
Understand the paradoxes of the Chinese consumer in this explainer.
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Real Estate Nugget: Volume leads price – bad news for 2024 still
The simplest of rules still holds in Real Estate space. The current lack of volume is a harbinger for the price development. The trigger could prove to be the weakness in Services.
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Macro Nugget: US Real Estate and Interest Rates
US housing keeps up for now despite sky-high rates. But are the rates just a nothing burger here?
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Real Estate Watch: Too early to call off the crisis in Western markets
Amidst continued unease in the Chinese economy and with Evergrande having just filed for Chapter 15 protection, we’ve decided to take a closer look at the state of US real estate. Trouble to come or in fact time to buy?
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Asset Allocation Watch: Country Garden melt-down? 5 charts on cross-asset spill-overs!
Which assets will be on the move if the Chinese RE meltdown continues on Monday? We have gathered the empirical evidence in this short but data-heavy piece. Best of luck for trading during the week ahead!
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Credit Watch – Why European Housing is likely going further south
With the recent drop in house lending in the Eurozone, we take a closer look at how exposed European consumers and corporations actually are to further interest rate hikes. A teaser: It doesn’t look particularly great.
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Real Estate Watch: Carnage in the Swedish Housing Market
Quick dive into the Swedish Real Estate market where variable rates in mortgages have proven especially spicy for households.
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5 Things We Watch: Inflation, Real Estate, Banking Crisis, Credit and Euro Weakness
Wednesday is back, and so is the weekly post where we highlight what we are currently spending our time looking at. Don’t miss out on the crucial tendencies in global macro presented in this shorter piece!
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Real Estate Watch: More charts on the real estate outlook
A couple of weeks ago, we provided you with a list of regional banks with the biggest exposure towards commercial real estate. Now, it’s time to see how those players have performed since, as well as providing you with further charts on the real estate outlook. Enjoy!
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CHINA WEEK: What does new 2023 growth targets signal about Xi’s priorities
China’s top legislature, the National People’s Congress (NPC), opened its annual meeting yesterday. The main highlight was the presentation of the new work report by outgoing Premier Li Keqiang which sets the 2023 fiscal targets for the Chinese economy. Later this week, Xi Jinping is expected to further consolidate his power with several high-profile appointments including the new Premier, vice-premiers, and the new governor of the central bank.
Real Estate Watch – Which markets will be worst off in 2023?
While liquid markets are still trying to make up their minds on whether to rise from the ashes of H2 2022 or continue the downward trajectory, I think it is due time we put the real estate markets under the scrutinous loop once more.
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Real Estate Watch #1 – The equity market crisis to spread to Real Estate
The biggest interest rate shock in several decades ought to challenge the Real Estate outlook. Since housing famously is the business cycle, what is the 2023 outlook for housing?
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Steno Signals #23 – Ni Hao China?
Given the rumors surrounding the Chinese reopening story we thought that we would do a deep dive into the China story and look at what is moving. Can we even expect to see a reopening?
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Steno Signals #15 – The one on inflation nuances and portfolio construction
It is time to be humble about inflation. It is tricky to time the peak, why a basket with embedded windshields, should inflation re-accelerate, may be the best choice.
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