Chinese equities with another strong session. Is it time to jump the bandwagon? Meanwhile, an expected non-event ECB meeting may not be completely sleepy.
PMI Watch: Time for the much awaited rebound?
Expectations for a rebound in EUR PMIs are building ahead of Wednesday, but we would like to remind you that January PMIs received historically large positive seasonal revisions last year. It does not bode well for January PMIs this year.
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Something for your Espresso: The one on Angola, short-sellers and ISMs
Markets remain unconvinced by the OPEC meeting, but history tells us to expect a strengthening quota compliance in coming months. Meanwhile, the ISM Manufacturing is likely to surprise !
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Portfolio Watch: Celebration for the right or wrong reasons?
A softer than anticipated CPI print – spot on our forecast – lit the fuse for a rally in equities following a rally in bonds. Whether yields eased for the right reasons remains unclear. Read along as we dissect the moves, our performance and consider our allocations going forward.
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Something for your Espresso: The cyclical litmus test
Focus on cyclical indicators from Europe and the US this week while China is trying to prop up local assets again. Make or break time!
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Equities Watch: Today’s Philly Fed Figures Make For Bullish Reading
Earlier this week we identified possible curtain-raisers on near-term developments in US manufacturing, and with parts of the Philly Fed Survey backing our findings, what can be expected for equities?
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5 Things We Watch – PMIs, FX, Japan, Brazil, Inflation
This week our primary focus is the current business cycle, where we try to figure out which stage we are in, and what outlook different asset classes are pricing in. Today’s edition of ‘5 Things We Watch’ is no exception.
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US Manufacturing Watch: Indicators point to a cyclical rebound
The economic activity in goods manufacturing has been contracting since October 2022 according to the ISM reports, but contrary to the latest figure (46) select indicators hint of a possible cyclical rebound.
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Something for the Espresso: PMIs to sum up the week
After a job claims report that was only slightly weaker than the consensus yesterday, our focus now shifts to the upcoming release of the PMI reports toda
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5 Things We Watch: Macro Regime, Oil, Manufacturing Cycle, Labor and The USD
With the banking turmoil fading a bit, we thought we’d turn some of our attention elsewhere. It’s not like there is a lack of things to cover in global macro. Once again, we present our timeliest findings and assess how to interpret them.
Something for your Espresso: Good news is bad news?
A big bounce in ISM Services and suddenly the higher for longer spills-over to equities. The current rebound has higher rates tattooed all over it but is it sensible?
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Something for your Espresso: Will the cyclical rebound be confirmed?
Will the cyclical upswing be confirmed in European PMIs and German IFO numbers? Markets clearly lean that way, while bets are being removed on a more hawkish BoJ.
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Something with your Espresso: Even the Tesla is alive again
Today is a big day for the “rebound bet” as PMIs are out in Europe and in the US. We understand why markets expect a rebound in activity but find the risk/reward lackluster in betting on it.
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Steno Signals #24 – Bipolar China
A rising case count is ultimately the only trigger cable to end to the Chinese zero Covid regime, why the possibility of a reopening is currently INCREASING.
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Steno Signals #15 – The one on inflation nuances and portfolio construction
It is time to be humble about inflation. It is tricky to time the peak, why a basket with embedded windshields, should inflation re-accelerate, may be the best choice.
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Steno Signals 11 – Inflationistas vs Recessionistas
Is this a return to a 70s-like fight between inflation and recession? The energy supply scarcity is likely to bring about yuge business cycle volatility in coming years until the situation is settled.
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Steno Signals #10 – How to position for a landslide in PMIs?
What happens in markets when the ISM Manufacturing index drops below 50 over the next quarter? We have looked across all assets with interesting findings.
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