A big bounce in ISM Services and suddenly the higher for longer spills-over to equities. The current rebound has higher rates tattooed all over it but is it sensible?
Something for your Espresso: Will the cyclical rebound be confirmed?
Will the cyclical upswing be confirmed in European PMIs and German IFO numbers? Markets clearly lean that way, while bets are being removed on a more hawkish BoJ.
Something with your Espresso: Even the Tesla is alive again
Today is a big day for the “rebound bet” as PMIs are out in Europe and in the US. We understand why markets expect a rebound in activity but find the risk/reward lackluster in betting on it.
Steno Signals #24 – Bipolar China
A rising case count is ultimately the only trigger cable to end to the Chinese zero Covid regime, why the possibility of a reopening is currently INCREASING.
Steno Signals #15 – The one on inflation nuances and portfolio construction
It is time to be humble about inflation. It is tricky to time the peak, why a basket with embedded windshields, should inflation re-accelerate, may be the best choice.
Steno Signals 11 – Inflationistas vs Recessionistas
Is this a return to a 70s-like fight between inflation and recession? The energy supply scarcity is likely to bring about yuge business cycle volatility in coming years until the situation is settled.
Steno Signals #10 – How to position for a landslide in PMIs?
What happens in markets when the ISM Manufacturing index drops below 50 over the next quarter? We have looked across all assets with interesting findings.