While we have booked profits in our long oil bets, we are getting increasingly bullish on the broader commodity complex. Especially a couple of metals look extremely interesting here.
Steno Signals #90 – More liquidity to the most hated rally in recent history
It feels reminiscent of early 2021 in many ways with a very hated rally that keeps getting liquidity fuel. Central banks remain biased towards easing and will allow the economy to reflate with liquidity.
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Something for your Espresso: Melt UP!
The ongoing AI wave has been spiced up with signs of procyclical data releases and improving fundamentals in Manufacturing and global trade. Where does it leave us globally?
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Something for your Espresso: If you SLOOS, you lose
The quarterly SLOOS results are out later today ahead of “empty” data week. Powell will take stage on Wednesday and Thursday. Will he backpaddle if the melt up continues?
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Steno Signals #72 – When a recession meets a melt-up in equities and bonds
The Fed introduced a new feedback loop, which is likely to limit the scope of this bear market rally. Remember that Q4 data usually looks really bad in an inflationary environment, while Q1 is the quarter of “inflation math”.
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Something for your Espresso: The market is slowly starting to get the memo
When Powell allowed market based conditions to dictate the Fed Funds path, he indirectly also introduced a hawkish reaction function, if risk and term premias abate in coming weeks.
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