Morning from Europe ahead of a big inflation day. Disinflation has reached Australia, which is good news for our AUD duration bet. The January FOMC meeting will be all about QT.
The RBA kept the pause intact despite markets tilting towards a hike and it raises questions ahead of the BoE on Thursday. Is growth back as the driver of central banks? Meanwhile, credit surveys continue to disappoint.
We add to our cyclical bets in FX space with a few idiosyncratic reasons for this position as well.
The ISM Services report had “pause” tattooed all over, while the RBA hiked this morning in a surprise move. Is the RBA a harbinger for the BoJ? We also took notice of the WSJ story in increasing capital requirements for banks.
The RBA echoed rhetoric from other central banks and will frontload a few hikes while assessing the “extent” of damage done to the economy of former lags. The question is now if Powell rocks the boat on the coordinated central bank rhetoric today.
Every Wednesday our Head of Research, Andreas Steno, goes through the 5 most important themes/charts in global macro right now and how we assess them. Enjoy!
Morning folks Smoking hot CPI report out of Australia. Good news for our AUD longs and a cementation of a too dovish pricing of RBA currently peaking at 3.75% in Q3. If the RBA were to copy/paste the playbook of the Fed or the ECB and aim for positive real rates… Oh boy a repricing that would prompt. We wouldn’t rule out such a repricing since we find that the APAC inflation cycle lags Europe and the US. Europe’s energy woes increased price pressures on Natural Gas in the APAC region with a time-lag, and this is one of the reasons why this region is now under inflation scrutiny. This is of relevance for Bank of Japan as well. Australian CPI empirically leads Japanese CPI by 3 months, which leads us to the conclusion that Japanese inflation is headed for 5-5.5% in the next 3-4 months. Quite a backdrop for a new Governor in BoJ and a HISTORICAL chance to at least partly scrap the YCC. Bring on speculation about a change of policy via the JPY release valve again. Chart 1. Australian CPI leads Japanese CPI We saw a decent bounce in both US and European S&P PMIs, but no one really cares about them, since the Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) out earlier this week points to ISM Services clearly below 50… Yesterday’s market reaction was also telling with no positive reaction to the rebound in PMIs, since the crowd was CLEARLY leaning that way ahead of the PMIs. […]