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Macro Nugget: US Consumers’ Savings Are Far From Depleted

Reevaluating the San Francisco Fed's Assumptions on Household Savings Rates
2024-07-02

Recent stories about the depletion of excess savings by US consumers are common, but we challenge the San Francisco Fed’s assumptions. They assume an equilibrium savings ratio of 0.8% per month, a figure not seen since the 1980s. This calculation seems excessively harsh. Considering changes in debt markets and interest rates, a savings rate of 5% per year is more realistic. Interestingly, a 0.4% monthly savings rate suggests US households still have over $3 trillion in excess savings. Contrary to popular belief, US consumers are not depleted of resources.

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