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Donald Trump’s reelection as President of the United States is a game changer for the crypto market, setting the stage for transformative years ahead. We are confident that this will reshape the industry. However, in the immediate term, the rally seems to be driven more by the derivatives market than by the spot market. We would like to see some of this speculative excess ease, paving the way for a more sustainable move higher.
The Trump trade is roaring in financial markets, but how will China navigate the turbulence? Should we expect a major fiscal announcement on Friday, or perhaps a conciliatory approach to try and avoid tariffs? And what is happening in German politics?
A personal note from Andreas Steno
German tariff revenues remain strong, but with VW and others planning layoffs after sharp revenue drops, this may soon change.
Can Trump deliver?
55 ISM Manufacturing readings come New Year?
US housing data later today may reveal ongoing weak MBS demand, signaling potential declines in construction despite tight supply.
Over the past week, my X feed has been flooded with doomsday predictions claiming that Uniswap launching its own Ethereum rollup will be the final blow to Ethereum. This is absolutely not the case. In the short term, it will have no impact on the activity of Uniswap’s mainnet application. In the longer term, it will actually support Ethereum’s rollup-centric roadmap by being an interoperable liquidity hub. As rollups are about to start paying for blobs, Ethereum’s transactional revenue is still sustained even as activity moves from mainnet to rollups.
Valuations about to come under pressure by rising long end yields?
Investors not rushing in to price a more dovish BoE
Trade data between China and USA has diverged
Money supply in China hints at cold PPI numbers
Both IP and construction continue to look weak!
Germany is experiencing a bit of a China shock.
Seasonal factors will be working against Powell in the fall and winter
The manufacturing rebound in H1 2024 was another head-fake
More on the weakness in China
Something for the German hawks to consider!
Goldman Sachs raises alarms over potential OPEC supply increases that could disrupt global oil markets.
Like water, trade tends to find a way around barriers.
Chinese retail sales 9% off its pre-pandemic trend
Gold and its correlation with real rates has flipped after the war in Ukraine.
…But it is a lot more tricky this time
Construction spending has been driven mainly by the manufacturing sector
Low margins and high stock levels mean that China will export its excess capacity.
Unemployment and housing have worsen over the course of July!
Americans are taking advantage of the lower rates and are refinancing their mortgages.
Transporation services and shelter still proving sticky!
Unemployment rate and claimant count have diverged post Covid
US refiners’ capacity utilization low for the season.