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Macro Nugget: Was the productivity/disinflation story of ’23 a hoax?

Do they know the true number of employees in the US?
2024-07-16
<a href="https://stenoresearch.com/author/ulriksimmelholt/" target="_self">Ulrik Simmelholt</a>

Ulrik Simmelholt

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In the fall of last year markets were running with the story of increasing productivity and disinflation which led to several rate cuts being priced in heading into 2024. Looking at immigration data the spike in border encounters at the Southwest Land Border during the fall of 2023 suggest that the productivity story could simply be the result of poor labor market data.

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