While the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF did not spark a significant reaction in the market for Bitcoin, Ethereum emerged as the clear winner, securing a substantial 15% gain over Bitcoin post-ETF approval. Our expectation is that Ethereum stands to reap further rewards in the coming months, while Bitcoin experiences slow bleeding.
As we step into 2024, it seems like everyone is long crypto left, right, and center. This environment does not elicit much enthusiasm from us, as it brings back memories of the exact opposite situation just a year ago. We have identified five key factors that we believe will shape 2024. Among them, three are anticipated to pose potential downsides, one holds the potential for an upside surprise, and there is a joker that seems to be completely overlooked.
In a few decades, Bitcoin may face challenges in covering its own security and maintaining decentralization if no alterations are made, given the halving events occurring every fourth year. The fundamental question arises: Can Bitcoin truly serve as digital gold if the outlook suggests it struggles to fund its security within the next two decades?
Bitcoin is a pet rock. It will never achieve a transactional output much greater than its current maximum of 7 transactions per second. This falls short of what Satoshi Nakamoto envisioned for Bitcoin. That being said, Bitcoin has embraced other extremely powerful narratives that set it apart from the rest of the market, which arguably hold greater significance than what Satoshi Nakamoto envisioned 15 years ago.
The crypto industry can breathe a sigh of relief as institutions enter the crypto space, even as the industry continues to lick its wounds after last year’s contagion. The industry does not appreciate the European Union’s MiCA framework enough, if at all. Few seem to know what it is, yet it will be vital in shaping tomorrow’s crypto industry.
A bet on crypto right now is a bet on macroeconomics. For believers in a soft landing and imminent interest rate cuts, accumulating crypto could be advantageous. In this scenario, we believe Ethereum to outperform Bitcoin massively. Alternatively, those anticipating a hard landing may find it wise to stay on the sidelines for now. Delve deeper into our analysis for a comprehensive understanding of our view.
The systemic risks of crypto were substantially mitigated last week as Binance settled various charges with multiple US agencies. Despite this clearly positive news, the crypto market did not react, leading us to remain pessimistic in the short term until we observe renewed inflow and interest in crypto. Tether remains the largest risk to crypto.
We align with the market consensus that the approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF in the US is imminent. Given this widespread belief, we contend that this ETF might already be priced in, particularly considering the risk of Grayscale releasing billions of dollars’ worth of bitcoins into the market. Our assessment leans towards anticipating more downward selling pressure than the opposite, contrasting with the prevailing market sentiment.
There have been three Bitcoin halvings in total, and each time, Bitcoin has reached a new all-time high within a maximum of 1.5 years. Observing many of the same factors present in the three prior halvings, we argue that history is likely to repeat itself after the fourth halving in April 2024.
We launch our research offering on the crypto market amidst little interest from non-crypto advocates. We argue that this is historically the best time to add exposure to crypto.
