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Crypto Crisp: Is That All, Hong Kong?

This weekend saw Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the broader crypto market surge, despite our bearish stance. It seems the market rose primarily due to anticipated improvements in liquidity conditions. However, our bearish arguments remain intact, and we continue to hold the same market position.
2024-05-06

Unfortunately, it is not only Monday, but we have also found ourselves on the wrong side of the crypto market over the weekend. In Thursday’s Crypto Moves #26, we expressed a bearish outlook on the market for the short term.

Contrary to our expectations, the overall industry did not adhere to our forecast. Over the weekend, Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced increases of approximately 8% and 6%, respectively, although both assets are now trading slightly lower. Fortunately, we originally initiated our bearish stance last Monday, when the prices were nearly identical to current levels.

The rationale behind our bearish perspective outlined in Thursday’s Crypto Moves #26 remains valid. We believe our misjudgment was primarily due to one factor – the expected increase in liquidity. It appears that the market factored in the anticipated improvements in liquidity conditions over the weekend. We do not view this as a sustainable trend in the near term, considering a significantly improved liquidity environment is still several months away, which reinforces our bearish stance on the market.

This weekend saw Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the broader crypto market surge, despite our bearish stance. It seems the market rose primarily due to anticipated improvements in liquidity conditions. However, our bearish arguments remain intact, and we continue to hold the same market position.

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