Debt will grow when Scholz leaves office, but Germany is still better off than hopeless France.
Geopolitical Flash Update – Bye Bye Barnier
Prime minister Michel Barnier’s government will fall this evening barring a miracle.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Professional, The Macro Connoisseur or Crypto plan.
Already a member? Login here
What has RFK actually said on Big Pharma?
With appointments coming in left, right and centre – here’s what potential Trump appointee RFK Jr. has actually said on big pharma.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the The Macro Connoisseur, Professional or Crypto plan.
Already a member? Login here
Great Game – What we know about Harris’ economic plan after DNC
What the U.S lacks in Eurovision, they make up for during the Democratic National Convention. But in the midst of the media-mayhem, were we robbed of economic policy?
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the The Macro Connoisseur, Professional or Crypto plan.
Already a member? Login here
Last week in Geopolitics
This week in geopolitics, Sunak and Starmer debated key issues ahead of the UK’s July 4 election. In India, Modi’s BJP retained power despite falling short of a majority, influenced by a strong opposition and economic concerns. The Ukraine-Russia conflict escalates, US-China trade talks resume amid South China Sea tensions, and Israel-Palestine peace talks show progress while Saudi-Iran relations improve.
Explainer: the 3 faces of Chinese consumer pessimism
The Li Keqiang Index witnessed its most robust monthly surge since 2005 but consumer confidence is rotten?
Understand the paradoxes of the Chinese consumer in this explainer.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Professional plan.
Already a member? Login here
Policy Watch: The German ‘debt brake’ on EU green tech ambitions
How Germanys constitutional debt brake could hinder the green transition of Europe and leave Germany at the bottom of the leaderboard in the race towards fiscal deficits.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Professional plan.
Already a member? Login here
This is why Biden’s sanctions aren’t working
How well is Russia’s economy doing two years into the war? And how will the upcoming election play out? Read our explainer
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Professional plan.
Already a member? Login here
Labour Watch: Can ECB cut rates with these pay rises?
Christina Lagarde says wage data will be “critically important” in deciding when to loosen monetary policy in the EU. So naturally, Steno Research takes inventory of ongoing labour negotiations and rising pay in the EU.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Professional plan.
Already a member? Login here
Demographics Watch: Biden’s voter base grows ahead of 2024 election
With Trump looking as a sure-fire bet to take the Republican nomination, how is the voter demographics poised for the eventual Biden-Trump rematch?
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Professional plan.
Already a member? Login here
US Policy Watch: Is Trump’s nomination done and dusted after tonight?
Iowa only matters for DeSantis, New Hampshire is crucial for Haley, and South Carolina is important for everyone.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Professional plan.
Already a member? Login here
U.S. Debt Watch: Biden Lost $17B the First Day of 2024
The U.S federal government is ringing in the new year with a 1% cut to all non-discretionary spending – a consequence of a little-known provision in the June debt ceiling agreement.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Professional plan.
Already a member? Login here
NEW EU FISCAL RULES – Victory for the expansionists or the prudentials?
Amidst the prospect of a soft landing and lower interest rates, the European Council unanimously voted in favor of reinstating fiscal safeguards for EU member states after a 4-year pause during the pandemic.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Professional plan.
Already a member? Login here
COP28 Nuclear Deal – Implications for the Global Clean Energy Race
The COP28 nuclear treaty is the latest chapter in the story about the U.S.-China weapons race in clean tech.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Professional plan.
Already a member? Login here
US Policy Watch: No Shutdown but are we out of the woods yet?
The immediate shutdown threat has been averted, although the issue of war funding remains unresolved for President Biden. The question remains: is the political gridlock alleviated? Read our brief take below
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Professional plan.
Already a member? Login here
EUROPOLITICS WATCH: Opposition victory in Poland opens door for Ukraine in the EU?
On Wednesday, the European commission made a formal recommendation to start EU membership negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova. Now Ukraine must secure the endorsements of member states – not least Poland’s incoming government who will be decisive for Ukraine’s future with the Union.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Professional plan.
Already a member? Login here
US Policy Watch: Speakership chaos and IRA explained
US Politics is in a state of gridlock. We give our latest view on the affairs on Capitol Hill below
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Professional plan.
Already a member? Login here
Policy Watch: Speaker McCarthy is out – what happens to the Spending Bill?
After a series of eventful days on Capitol Hill, we present our key takeaways below. We remain committed to covering and sharing our perspective as the situation continues to evolve.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Professional plan.
Already a member? Login here
US Debt Watch: Time for lengthy shutdown?
The U.S government will shut down on Sunday when FY23 funding elapses with no spending bill to replace it. This is how we assess the shutdown unfolding and how it will affect the outcome of the final 2024 budget.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Professional plan.
Already a member? Login here
SPAIN ELECTION WATCH: WHY SPAIN IS NOT THE NEXT ITALY
Could a right-wing government in Spain follow in the footsteps of Meloni’s crusade against the EU economic framework? Tensions are high as we gear up to the all-important General Election on Sunday.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Professional plan.
Already a member? Login here
U.S Debt Watch: Do we need this conversation again?
Pheew… close call! The bipartisan debt ceiling bill saved the U.S from economic disarray. Now we can all take a well-deserved summer holiday and bask in the sunshine of the long-term financial stability ensured by responsible lawmakers who have no interest in short-term solutions nor gains. But no – not so fast! We still have a looming government shutdown to attend to.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Professional plan.
Already a member? Login here
U.S Debt Countdown: Will A Deal Go Through Today?
Does Biden and McCarthy have the necessary votes to suspend the debt ceiling and save the U.S from default?
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Professional plan.
Already a member? Login here
Turkey Election Watch #3 Final Predictions Ahead of our Election Night Live Blog
The Turkey Election Watch Series will culminate on election day, May 14th and 15th – READ OUR LATEST PREDICTIONS BEFORE ELECTION NIGHT. Steno Research launches our very own Turkey Election Live Blog. We will provide you with live updates, key trends and analyses from the election while results tick in.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Professional plan.
Already a member? Login here
Turkey Election Watch #2 – Erdogan and Kılıçdaroğlu Foreign Policies Compared
Turkey is heading to the polls on May 14th and the stakes couldn’t be higher. In this piece, we draw up the main foreign policy differences between the top contestants Erdogan and Kılıçdaroğlu.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Professional plan.
Already a member? Login here
Debt Ceiling Countdown #4: The Chicken Game Catastrophe
When it comes to the debt ceiling, politicians are not the only ones asleep at the steering wheel. Political commentators, too, seem freakishly calm telling folks that Congress *eventually* has to reach a settlement on raising the debt ceiling. While I don’t disagree with the end-result, it is astounding how few are concerned with the likely government crisis that will unfold before a deal is struck. We are underestimating the power of the Freedom Caucus and overestimating Biden’s willingness to avoid a government shutdown. The cocktail is putting the U.S. on a path towards debt brinkmanship.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Professional plan.
Already a member? Login here
Türkiye Election Watch: Erdogan’s Swan Song?
Geopolitically, no election can contest the significance of the dual Turkish Presidential and Parliament elections this year. President Erdogan has never lost an election (national, local or referendum) in his 21 year reign, but right now polls predict a toss-up between him and the opposition coalition. We are following the campaign trail with an eagle’s-eye, and are giving you the key insights in our new Turkey Election Watch Series. Come along for the ride.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Professional plan.
Already a member? Login here
Europolitics Watch: Are EU banks actually less exposed?
Are EU banks more solid and protected from bank runs and instability in the banking system? Have the EU set up safe-guards that will keep the European Banks safe? We take a closer look and are not overly convinced.
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Professional plan.
Already a member? Login here
China Week: This is China’s successor in global manufacturing
In the first edition of our Demographics Watch series, we took inventory of the global problem of aging populations. The issue is a familiar one in the West, but ‘The Asian Tigers’ too are waking up to a new reality of shrinking working populations. Who is next in line to take over from China as the world’s labour hub?
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Professional plan.
Already a member? Login here
Europolitics watch #2: The Tory Tragedy isn’t about division – it’s about defeatism
12 years of infighting in the Conservative party has trapped Rishi Sunak in a doom-loop between economic crisis and a defeatist Tory MP group. Will the 2024 general election clear the path for reform?
To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Professional plan.
Already a member? Login here