Hopes of a dovish QRA report vanished into thin air yesterday, and we consider the new target range for the TGA hawkish. ISMs, the FOMC meeting and the NFP may add to buying pressures in USD versus Asian FX again.
US Liquidity & Debt Watch: Yellen to decide the QT tapering timing tomorrow
Yellen holds the keys to an early end to QT. At the surface, she holds all the incentives to get the QT tapering process started sooner rather than later. Will it be reflected in the QRA details tomorrow?
Something for your Espresso: No issuance bomb from Yellen
The risk of another supply-driven sell-off in USTs has diminished as the fiscal trajectory in the US is improving slightly due to an improving income side. Meanwhile, we have a big day ahead for the Euro area.
Something for your Espresso: Yellen now decides the QT pace
The liquidity tailwinds paired with fading Red Sea fears lead equities higher again. The mini positioning wash-out leaves a good entry-point for Q1 risk-on trade here.
Something for your Espresso: Duration is hard to swallow
The market struggles with duration issuance as the positioning is already loaded with bonds, while the BoJ keeps weakening the JPY (on purpose) as they continue to crowd out investments.