Markets will remain on high geopolitical alert this week as we are awaiting whether Israel accepts the “eye for an eye” logic put forward by both Iran and the US. We see moderately upbeat markets ahead.
Steno Signals #95 – Is the next move a hike?
The market keeps lagging in this re-inflation cycle and while forward pricing and economists are backpaddling on 2024 expectations, the next battlefield is 2025. Could the Fed hike after the election?
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Steno Signals #93 – Material stealth QT upcoming during a war economy
The US is effectively running a war economy and the ultimate headache is typically not seen until the production pace is slowed. Meanwhile, Yellen allows for stealth QT in upcoming weeks and months.
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Great Game – Climate, chips and corruption!
COP28, Gaza, and Japan have taken center stage in our analysis of global geopolitics this week. Read our 3 key points below!
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Something for your Espresso: Cognitive dissonance?
We are walking a tightrope with war, high energy prices and recessionary risks. Is the market pricing congruent or does market pricing suffer from cognitive dissonance here?
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Something for your Espresso: Geopolitical risk premiums on the rise
Oil, USD and rates are up on the back of the increased Geopolitical risks. Will the fundamentals back up a continued move in that direction over the week?
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Steno Signals #68: There is NOT enough buyers for bonds amidst all this
Public deficits are running wild, while the risk of another war that needs ongoing funding is growing. US households have net bought loads of US Treasuries, but will they continue in light of ongoing disappointments?
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The Great Game #9 – Will China attack Taiwan?
Will China attack Taiwan? What is the Davidson Window? When will it all go down? Read our take and prediction here
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The Great Game #4 – The Bakhmut Bloodbath
What to make of the Russians making headway around Bakhmut and Ukraine striking deep into Russian hinterland? And what dilemmas await the West?
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