Steno Signals #45 – 4 ways consensus could be wrongfooted
Happy Sunday and welcome to our weekly flagship editorial! I am currently sitting in the Royal Silk Lounge in Bangkok Airport after some interesting days in Asia.
There is really no crisis mood at all in Asia, which struck me a bit compared to the series of (semi)crises that we have been through in the West since 2020. After having visited US, European and Asian large institutions over a time span of 3-4 weeks, I feel comfortable writing up this editorial on how consensus could be wrongfooted over the summer.
Narrational consensus is not necessarily equal to current market positioning, which we cover every Saturday and on a running basis in our data-hub.
Here are the four major topics where consensus could be wrongfooted.
1) The banking crisis is “over”
I guess most people ask themselves the question of whether this “bank crisis” is over or not and just this week BNP Paris, Nordea and Standard Chartered (and probably many many more) explicitly claimed that the crisis is OVER. In my opinion, we haven’t even had a true crisis yet – so how can a crisis that has not yet emerged already be over?
It seems counterintuitive to me, but why would you ask a bank whether a bank crisis is emerging in the first place? I am not calling Mcdonald’s to get honest feedback on the Cheeseburger either.
There are several reasons why the events that unfolded in March will ultimately turn into a bigger issue broadly in the banking sector.
Find out how the current consensus could be wrongfooted below! Remember that the first 14 days are FREE.
Chart 1: When uncertainty hits, tighter lending standards follow