The “Watch Series” is a collection of individual series such as Europolitics Watch, Inflation Watch, Real Estate watch and much more. Stay tuned for in-depth coverage of your favourite subjects.
We have noticed a trend of unionized labor proposing aggressive wage and working demands, thus we thought this would be a good time for a quick wage nugget.
Energy inflation is back on the board, and it will soon spread to PPI and the other components if current trends persist. We take you through the most important take-aways from the report.
We dive into the challenges ECB are (still) faced with, as headline inflation is likely to rebound from November and onwards, giving the ECB another – but bad – argument to keep policy restrictive. A hike seems like a done deal tomorrow, but what about the path for 2024?
With Brent crude trading above 90$ / barrel, markets beg the question if we are about to enter a new bull run in energy markets – indicators could very well point towards it. But watch out for the elephant in the room: Uranium.
The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) intended to deliver both an expedited ‘green’ transition as well as a +$300 bn deficit reduction. But, what are the measurable effects circa a year later?
The Fed is likely to conclude that the cocktail of rising headline inflation and dropping core inflation is enough for a skip, but by refusing to act on emerging renewed price pressures, they will likely let the market do the dirty work!
The first signs of a weakening job market are here, but will there be more to come? And what are the implications for equity markets?
The banking crisis theme seems to be losing steam in the media. But is it really over yet? 4 charts on the trouble
All eyes are on the Eurozone CPI next week as the USD keeps wrecking through global markets. How are traders positioned as we enter the last month of Q3? Read our takeaways below
Hail King USD! This week has been all about the US exceeding expectations, while the opposite is happening in the Euro area and to a certain extent in China.
We are well under way in our Services Week with our focus on Services and in this note we wanted to highlight the issues central banks could face in a scenario in which manufacturing outpaces services.
With the recent move in Energy, discussions on a broad second wave of inflation have resurfaced. There are similarities to the first wave, but also one MAJOR difference. Here is why..
Global trade is shifting and the US economy is still going strong but the dynamics are changing as are the times. How will global macro likely change as a result?
We have run the numbers on historical correlations between the US PMI spread and various asset classes to find out what you should buy if manufacturing rebounds while services weaken.
The simplest of rules still holds in Real Estate space. The current lack of volume is a harbinger for the price development. The trigger could prove to be the weakness in Services.
There is a sudden smell of 2021/2022 in the air again as Muftis and Zars suddenly have the upper hand in energy markets again. Can Bin Salman make life difficult for the West in Q4?
While liquidity was on everyone’s lips 6 months ago, the net effects have been somewhat benign. Meanwhile, PMIs and inflation seem to be running the show. It appears that services are weakening coincidently with manufacturing showing strength. Board or aboard cyclicals then?
The Chinese stimulus measures presented last week could provide generalists with another reason to jump the Energy bull train. Does this mean that the energy optimism is close to peak?
The intricacies of the US labor market make it challenging to derive coherent insights. To shed some light on our perspective, here are three charts that aid in elucidating our view
When input costs subside for Manufacturers but not for Service companies, the overall economic momentum moves in favour of the Manufacturers. This is most likely the juncture we are at.
There are early signs of manufacturing rebounding in the US amidst weakness in labor markets, weak European growth and yet another Chinese credit event. Is the market prepared for a cyclical uptick in the US despite all of the turmoil? We take a look here.
Weak hiring including negative revisions, Services much weaker relative to trend, but Manufacturing is rebounding. Everything we planned for!
Everything in our US model portfolio screams that we need to continue to tilt the portfolio in a cyclical direction. The signal is just not confirmed across the Pond(s) in Europe and China.
The UK has received some attention throughout the current economic cycle as they try to combat weakening growth together with inflation way above BoE’s target. Is now the time to buy UK assets, or is it still a nogo? We’ve run the numbers.
Our indicators suggest that ISM Manufacturing may suddenly accelerate faster than thought possible… A cyclical upswing on the cards in the US? Watch out tomorrow.
This week we had the anticipated German Ifo report come out in full, and while most parameters did not surprise, some might just be worth a closer inspection – an inspection we’ve decided to carry out
Are any of the major economies weak enough to consider receiving interest rates? We look across the major rates spectrum to find receiver/payer value and find the UK to be the odd one out!
We just got the release of Spanish and German Regional CPI this morning, and with the two making up 40% of the EU HICP basket, there might be some information to extract from today’s prints.
We have argued that risks of a more rapid disinflation in Europe are going under the radar. But as we get poor job opening numbers from the US, how do we assess the growth trajectory of the EZ and how will the ECB likely act?
What should we expect if the whispers of massiv crude oil draws hold true, and does last year’s LNG-hoarding safeguard Europe if the coming winter turns out to be a cold one? We have taken a look.
