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Watch Series

The “Watch Series” is a collection of individual series such as Europolitics Watch, Inflation Watch, Real Estate watch and much more. Stay tuned for in-depth coverage of your favourite subjects.

G5 Rates Watch: Mirror mirror on the wall, who’s the biggest interest rate cutter of them all?

FX Watch: Tough times ahead for king USD?

2024 has been better than feared for the USD, with hotter inflation data and better economic conditions paving the way for a stronger dollar, but what happens if the Fed cuts into sticky (or even rising) inflation?

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Energy Cable #61: Commodities are breaking out #2!

Energy Cable #60: Copper getting some help from China?

The Chinese moves toward larger fiscal deficits may be helpful for the energy- and industrial metal cases, but we still lack confirmation from the actual manufacturing cycle globally. Could the commodity complex be the macro case of 2024?

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US CPI Reaction: Headache for Powell not so much markets

US Inflation Watch: OER a one-off?

Was the sudden reacceleration in the owners equivalent of rent a one-off? This is the KEY question ahead of a report that brings soft food prices, soft car prices, soft goods prices and hot energy prices.

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Portfolio Watch: Markets sniffing out the Chinese resurgence case

Portfolio Watch: Sea of cyclical green

The cyclical rotation keeps rolling, and recent comments affirmed in our view that the Fed will allow the economy to reflate here. We caught on early and continue to reap great gains.

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Macro Regime Indicator: MORE liquidity is coming

Macro Regime Indicator: MORE liquidity is coming

Just as we identified in last month’s regime – and as our asset allocation model predicted -, risk assets have indeed performed. Question is if they will continue to. As always, we present our model framework on how to structure your portfolio.

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US CPI Reaction: Headache for Powell not so much markets

EUR-flation Watch: Hands down, I was wrong..

Disinflation is simply not happening as fast as anticipated by our models, but base effects remain very benign in coming months. The stickiness in services is eye-catching, but there is light at the end of the tunnel for the ECB.

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