Filter by Categories

Equity Watch: The Trump versus Biden Basket

A deep dive into our Biden and Trump basket along with a look at the sensitivities to the broad market and a look at small businesses should Trump get elected.
2024-07-16
<a href="https://stenoresearch.com/author/ulriksimmelholt/" target="_self">Ulrik Simmelholt</a>

Ulrik Simmelholt

0

We’ve received loads of feedback from our clients regarding our Trump versus Biden basket. 

As a result, we will provide a detailed breakdown of both baskets and explain the rationale behind each. We are updating the baskets regularly based on the political proposals of the two candidates. Based on the year-to-date performance of the Trump basket, it’s evident that the market has been anticipating a Trump victory for some time now.

Looking at rolling betas for the Trump and Biden baskets we find that the Biden basket is the more inflation sensitive of the two, which makes sense given its tilt towards rates sensitive sectors. It is also notable how the Biden basket has a beta to SPX of around 1.1 while delivering negative returns compared to SPX underlining the sector specific risk factors that the Biden basket is exposed to. The Trump basket, on the other hand, is your friend when it comes to inflation protection with a positive coefficient to short term inflation expectations. Although the Trump basket is tilted towards inflation, there is a tail risk that US energy will underperform post election if Trump makes his way to Saudi Arabia and gets a deal with MBS, which will likely be supply friendly.  

Chart 1.a: The Trump Basket has been on a heater the last few days!  

Chart 1.b: The Trump and Biden Baskets’ rolling beta to SPX

Chart 1.c: The Trump basket is your inflation protection friend

A deep dive into our Biden and Trump basket along with a look at the sensitivities to the broad market and a look at small businesses should Trump get elected.

You need to login or sign up to one of our member plans to see this. Login

0 Comments

STENO RESEARCH IS JOINING REAL VISION

From July 2025, Steno Research is joining Real Vision to create the ultimate macro research product for you!

As a subscriber, this means the following:

Yearly subscriber: For legal reasons, we cannot transfer your pre-paid subscription directly. You need to register with Real Vision and then we’ll transfer your pre-paid subscription quickly afterwards. Simply go to https://www.realvision.com/free and sign up - and then we’ll take care of the rest! We will shut down service of Steno Research on July 31st, so be sure to make the transfer to keep receiving our content.

Already a RV subscriber?
Please check that you are using the same e-mail. If yes, you don't need to do anything. If not, please contact [email protected].

Monthly subscriber: Your current monthly subscription with Steno Research will end during July (31st at the latest). To continue accessing our research (and more), you’ll need to sign up for a Real Vision membership. Check out your options on: https://www.realvision.com/pricing

For Institutional Clients:
- Your access has been moved to our new institutional offering at NowcastIQ.com
- If you haven’t been moved already, please contact [email protected]