Steno Signals #112 – Liquidity is BOTTOMING
Liquidity is stabilizing, and there are already signs that August will be better than July. We are aware of the risks in the labor markets, but we see strong signs of a cyclical bottom here, which may soften the impact of the uptick in unemployment. To read the full...
Macro Nugget: Manheim Index Revs Up
Yesterday the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index printed its biggest montly increase since early 2023 promting speculation of increased pressures in the transportation part of the CPI basket.
Macro Nugget: What if the Sahm Rule wasn’t even triggered?
The Sahm Rule has been triggered adding fuel to the recession fire. However, we find support in labor data that technicalities have vastly exaggerated weakness in the US labor market. Take weather conditions which have played a significant role in employment data this...
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