Macro Nugget: What if the Sahm Rule wasn’t even triggered?
Maybe the weakness is vastly exaggerated by technicalities?
The Sahm Rule has been triggered adding fuel to the recession fire. However, we find support in labor data that technicalities have vastly exaggerated weakness in the US labor market. Take weather conditions which have played a significant role in employment data this Summer, as over 1 million Americans have not been able to work over the last few months due to adverse weather, which is substantially more than usual. For a deep dive into US labor market see here.
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