We see the risk outlook as extraordinarily binary at this juncture. Either the cyclical green shoots continue to get the upper hand or else we are likely headed for a recessionary type of asset environment.

We see the risk outlook as extraordinarily binary at this juncture. Either the cyclical green shoots continue to get the upper hand or else we are likely headed for a recessionary type of asset environment.
Our working hypothesis continues to center around the current inflation pick-up resembling the September report from 2022 (released in October). Here are four charts that will make you go hmm…