We are in many ways experiencing 2007 all over. The BoJ is considering a move on the policy rate, the ECB is in a hawkish denial, while the Fed is undeniably still the most sensible “pauser” of the three.
Portfolio Watch: Waiting for Godot, Powell and 7.30
We see the risk outlook as extraordinarily binary at this juncture. Either the cyclical green shoots continue to get the upper hand or else we are likely headed for a recessionary type of asset environment.
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Seasonality Watch: Four charts that will make you go hmm…
Our working hypothesis continues to center around the current inflation pick-up resembling the September report from 2022 (released in October). Here are four charts that will make you go hmm…
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