Is US inflation going to surprise on the upside in the US? Relative liquidity developments continue to support the idea of higher USD-flation compared to EUR-flation.
Out of the Box #17 How would US exceptionalism flip the table for the RoW?
Global trade is shifting and the US economy is still going strong but the dynamics are changing as are the times. How will global macro likely change as a result?
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Steno Signals #62 – The recession is called off (by consensus)
The “no-landing” camp is getting increasingly crowded and even if we do not rule such a scenario out, we find that the probability of outcomes is starting to favor a more conservative approach to risk taking.
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EM by EM #5 Stairs up and elevator down in China?
As the markets evolve, we adapt accordingly. Although the reopening of China’s economy is still ongoing, the optimism surrounding it is gradually diminishing. Simultaneously, the worsening economic data from Western countries indicate a significant slowdown. With the once-promising light at the end of the tunnel slowly fading away so do the flows. In this short piece we reveal our new position
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China Watch – How’s it going with that reopening?
The China play has thus far not been profitable but I refuse to back down on my underlining analysis- Yet some reconsiderations are in order and it might be the start of a larger reevaluation. But for now the course of the ship is intact
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Steno Signals #38: Is this good or bad inflation?
There are undoubtedly signs of inflation pressures resurfacing in leading indicators, but remember that activity leads inflation. If inflation returns (from a momentum perspective), it is because activity has picked up markedly ahead of it. That is not bad news.
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