Ahead of the ECB decision, we release our chart book on the connection between EUR liquidity and moves in EUR markets. The ECB is likely to ramp up QT from July onwards and TLTRO repayments add to the liquidity malaise.
The Fed is not on pause. That is at least the message they try to convey to markets, but data will decide, and we have no concrete guidance on the path ahead. A well-orchestrated pause has an embedded hiking bias.