The Eurozone bear case seems to finally be playing out but what is the current state in Europe? Bleak and divided are two words that spring to mind.
Recession Nugget: What’s the deal with GDP and GDI
The spread between the income and production side of the economy keeps widening, but are there reasons to worry, or is it once again just a statistical question?
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Real Estate Nugget: Volume leads price – bad news for 2024 still
The simplest of rules still holds in Real Estate space. The current lack of volume is a harbinger for the price development. The trigger could prove to be the weakness in Services.
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US Labour Market Nugget: Services weakening clearly now
Weak hiring including negative revisions, Services much weaker relative to trend, but Manufacturing is rebounding. Everything we planned for!
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ISM Nugget: A yuge Manufacturing surprise in store for us?
Our indicators suggest that ISM Manufacturing may suddenly accelerate faster than thought possible… A cyclical upswing on the cards in the US? Watch out tomorrow.
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Macro nugget: Noooo BRICS, the more isn’t always the merrier
Big BRICS meeting in South Africa this week … So inviting Saudi Arabia et al. into the club is one big positive EV right? Well not necessarily
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Macro Nugget: Manufacturing up, Services down ?
S&P Global US Manufacturing out later today and we get to test our thesis on relative signs of strength in the PMI numbers.
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FX Nugget: What policy normalization? The BoJ is as interventionist as ever….
Ueda and Kishida met earlier today, allegedly to discuss currency developments among other things. Despite efforts to move away from the ultra-easy monetary policy, the BoJ remains as active as EVER..
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Rates & FX nugget: The PBoC doom-loop
A rebound in CNY, a much weaker JPY and higher USD rates. Sounds like the PBoC doom-loop to us! Here is how it works
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Macro Strategy Nugget: Why USDCNH > or < 7.30 is everything you need to watch
USDCNH above or below 7.20 changes the global macro regime and leads to a rotation in case it continues. Are you prepared accordingly?
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FX Nugget: Can the PBoC defy gravity? 7.30 watch
Will the PBoC defend the 7.30 handle at all costs? What does it mean for risk appetite? And how will Commodity markets be impacted? 5 nuggets on the importance of USDCNY right here!
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