An extraordinary NFP report spooked markets on Friday, but is the report full of fake news? The NFP admittedly rhymes with the big picture observations. The US economy is accelerating, while Europe is stuck in the abyss.
Manic price action across the board this week and everything looks up in the air. We are still alive and kicking despite the volatility
The market seems to be chasing the narrative of higher rates for now and the whisper clearly leans in the direction of a stronger job report. Meanwhile, freight rates continue up.
The latest NFP report erased most rumors of an upcoming downfall in the labor market, but it might not be as picture perfect as predicted by analysts.
The intricacies of the US labor market make it challenging to derive coherent insights. To shed some light on our perspective, here are three charts that aid in elucidating our view
The labor market is the primary reason why everyone is blowing off the recession right now. But is the labor market really as strong as the recent NFP numbers suggest? We don’t necessarily think so.
No one really knows what the ECB intends to do after the flip-flopping yesterday, but even in Europe it is probably safe to say that we are swiftly edging closer to the peak of this hiking cycle. Meanwhile, evidence gathers in USD markets that the Fed should move with a cut next.
It is the big NFP day, which will keep market participants busy on Good Friday. Here are the four labour market charts of relevance ahead of the release. We see DOWNSIDE risks to NFP.
The Chinese politburo aims for 5% annual growth in 2023. This leaves room for an upside surprise from China for once. We have a big week ahead of us. Find our expectations here.
An eight-sigma beat on non-farm-payrolls for it to print at 517k versus expectations of 188k. What is going on?