A weak NFP report is likely to trigger panic mode in front-end bond yields once again and force the Fed into action, despite its continued reluctance. In fact, there’s even a chance that the NFP could print negative today.
Something for your Espresso: Make or break day! All eyes on NFP
There is a huge volatility in the consensus estimates for the NFP and it seems like no one’s got a clue. June has delivered positive job surprises in recent years, but the market conviction seems low.
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Portfolio Watch: Good news = no cuts = bad news (for metals)
The NFP postpones the recession chatter (again) and markets will have to swallow that message as the FOMC meeting will be impacted by hawkish data surprises.
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Something for your Espresso: Lagarde’s tone rhyming with easier financial conditions
The ECB is now clear that they will discuss the rate cutting cycle at upcoming meetings. This will likely allow financial conditions to ease as we saw in the US from Q4 and onwards.
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Steno Signals #85 – NFP report full of FAKE news?
An extraordinary NFP report spooked markets on Friday, but is the report full of fake news? The NFP admittedly rhymes with the big picture observations. The US economy is accelerating, while Europe is stuck in the abyss.
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Portfolio Watch: Riding a Rollercoaster
Manic price action across the board this week and everything looks up in the air. We are still alive and kicking despite the volatility
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Something for your Espresso: Whispers of a strong job market report
The market seems to be chasing the narrative of higher rates for now and the whisper clearly leans in the direction of a stronger job report. Meanwhile, freight rates continue up.
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Labor Watch – Running through the anomalies in the labor market
The latest NFP report erased most rumors of an upcoming downfall in the labor market, but it might not be as picture perfect as predicted by analysts.
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Macro Nugget: 3 Charts on US Labour market
The intricacies of the US labor market make it challenging to derive coherent insights. To shed some light on our perspective, here are three charts that aid in elucidating our view
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Labor Watch – Hairdressers and cleaning ladies are holding the labor market above water
The labor market is the primary reason why everyone is blowing off the recession right now. But is the labor market really as strong as the recent NFP numbers suggest? We don’t necessarily think so.
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Something for your Espresso: Lagarde the flip-flopper
No one really knows what the ECB intends to do after the flip-flopping yesterday, but even in Europe it is probably safe to say that we are swiftly edging closer to the peak of this hiking cycle. Meanwhile, evidence gathers in USD markets that the Fed should move with a cut next.
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Something for your Espresso: 4 charts on the US labour market
It is the big NFP day, which will keep market participants busy on Good Friday. Here are the four labour market charts of relevance ahead of the release. We see DOWNSIDE risks to NFP.
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Something for your Espresso: A yuuge week ahead
The Chinese politburo aims for 5% annual growth in 2023. This leaves room for an upside surprise from China for once. We have a big week ahead of us. Find our expectations here.
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Good Morning America: Wow, just wow!
An eight-sigma beat on non-farm-payrolls for it to print at 517k versus expectations of 188k. What is going on?
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