There is a huge volatility in the consensus estimates for the NFP and it seems like no one’s got a clue. June has delivered positive job surprises in recent years, but the market conviction seems low.
Something for your Espresso: The slowdown in the US is “well-hiden”
US data surprises have started to soften, but given the oil demand, service sector price plans- and hiring intentions, it is safe to say that the slowdown is still well-hidden. European inflation is waning much faster than across the pond.
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ECB Watch: Damned if you do & doomed if you don’t?
We have argued that risks of a more rapid disinflation in Europe are going under the radar. But as we get poor job opening numbers from the US, how do we assess the growth trajectory of the EZ and how will the ECB likely act?
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Out of the Box #12: What if the deacceleration of EZ inflation starts to outpace that of the US?
We revisit the eurosceptic case to assess whether we have let our pessimism get the better of us. Or could Euro bulls still be in peril?
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Something for the Espresso: More hiccups or will JPOW & Lagarde sleep tight?
We suspect both Powell and Lagarde to be content with today’s releases but perhaps the cycle fools everyone again?
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Wage Watch: The recession without job losses – 7 charts on US employment
Some have labeled 2022 a “white collar recession” as the job market has remained stable throughout. Are there early signs of weakening in US labor markets? And what would be the consequences? We look at 7 charts here.
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Steno Signals #20 – NO soft landing unless central banks admit to disinflation
It is hard to find a single inflation indicator not rolling over, but there is ONE and that will be tricky to handle for the Fed. Meanwhile, European energy supplies are MUCH better than feared!
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