Reciprocal tariffs will put markets on the back foot right from the start of the week, leaving certain EMs highly vulnerable, while Europe remains well-positioned. Setting the noise aside, the 2025 cycle looks very promising.
Steno Signals #105 – What to make of the rising bankruptcies?
Recession chasing has become an obsession for many, but how can we use the current bankruptcy trend to trade the macro cycle in a clever way? Here are the findings from our bankruptcy studies.
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Something for your Espresso: On a BOAT towards a recovery
The ISM manufacturing number keeps printing at weak levels, but it remains out of whack with the economy. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Fed nowcast weakens materially ahead of the ISM Services print.
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Portfolio Watch: Data green-lighting continued rally – cautious metals however
China has been in the limelight recently, and the attention from clients match the evident rotation in managed positioning. While tremendously yielding, we’ve decided to de-risk in metals but keep overall cyclical exposure.
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Portfolio Watch: Markets sniffing out the Chinese resurgence case
The commodity cycle is healing, but overall trends are more lukewarm. Interesting whether this is the market sniffing out something related to the manufacturing cycle in China? Either way, we have been positioned appropriately.
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Portfolio Watch: Sea of cyclical green
The cyclical rotation keeps rolling, and recent comments affirmed in our view that the Fed will allow the economy to reflate here. We caught on early and continue to reap great gains.
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Rates Watch: Are we all still chasing that cutting cycle too early?
Rising manufacturing PMIs, sticky labour markets and re-accelerating services inflation in some categories. Have we all underestimated the risk of the Fed continuing on a path of higher(er) for longer again?
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