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Something for your Espresso: On a BOAT towards a recovery

The ISM manufacturing number keeps printing at weak levels, but it remains out of whack with the economy. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Fed nowcast weakens materially ahead of the ISM Services print.
2024-06-04

Morning from Europe!

The ISM Manufacturing gauge refuses to truly rise from the abyss despite several signals from the real economy hinting of a comeback for the cyclical momentum.

The BCOM index is up materially this year, shipping volumes are on the rise, freight rates are on fire and the truck market demand index has been (almost) one way traffic since Powells pivot in late 2023, but yet the ISM survey refuses to go up.

This keeps the wall of worries intact for now, especially as the forward looking details of the survey aren’t looking too pretty either. The big issue for the ISM Institute is that the ISM Manufacturing survey doesn’t really rhyme with the observed activity in the sectors that it is supposed to cover.

Chart 1: Weak headline activity and weak forward looking details


The ISM manufacturing number keeps printing at weak levels, but it remains out of whack with the economy. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Fed nowcast weakens materially ahead of the ISM Services print.

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