Emerging market central banks demonstrated their foresight in 2021, acting ahead of the curve. However, there is a looming concern that the resurgence in energy prices might pose a challenge for them, much like it did in 2022.
In 2021, I took a bearish position in the Chinese real estate market. However, the scale of the repercussions stemming from the ongoing deleveraging process in Chinese real estate has raised our concerns. Despite this, we believe that the CCP will likely need to intervene in the near term to address the situation
Flows into money market funds are slowing, while only survey data truly hints of an upcoming credit crunch. Watch the H8 data on bank balance sheets end of business today.
Evidence is gathering that the SVB-fueled banking stress indeed will turn into a recession, but instead of a fast and rapid liquidity driven recession, we are rather slow-walking into a credit crunch over summer.