Great Game – What comes next for Hamas and Israel?
Welcome to a quick rundown of what’s what in the Hamas-Israel war that we’re all watching these days. We will be releasing a bunch of macro analyses on both commodities and other areas, so in this space we’ll stick with the geopolitical analysis. Here’s my main takeaways:
1973 all over again?
The comparison to the 1973 Yom Kippur War is obvious. Saturday’s attack was launched on the 50 year anniversary and seemingly caught Israel by complete surprise. Hamas was able to score incredible initial “wins” (if you can talk about winning in such a scenario) just as the Egyptians were in 1973. However – in 1973, Israel was attacked by jet fighters, massed tank formations, heavy artillery and naval assets. That was a true conventional attack and a genuine threat to the existence of the Jewish state. 2023 is not that. The attack is more than the usual guerilla-level attacks that we have seen before from Hamas. It’s more conventional and massed in its nature, but it’s not a lethal threat. That point also underscores the overall arch of the power of the Arabic and Muslim countries – 50 years ago they threatened the existence of Israel, now they can at most threaten the lives of a couple of thousand Israelis.
Furthermore, Israel is not really facing a threat from the north so far. I think Hezbollah are delicately measuring the least amount of noise they can make in order to appease their own hardliners and make themselves seem relevant, while at the same time not provoking a full-scale Israeli counter-offensive.
Does Hamas have a plan?