The Ukrainian Spring – no, wait – Summer Offensive is now fully underway. The Ukrainians took their time with probing and shaping attacks, but the last week has seen heavily increased action across the front. Here’s a rundown of what’s going on and what to expect.

The Nova Kakhova Dam – why?

Last week, the Russians set off an explosion that eventually all but destroyed the Nova Kakhova Dam in the Kherson region. This was a clear application of hydraulic warfare – the use of water as a military tool. By blowing up the dam and flooding the area, the Russians accomplished two things – first of all, they caught a bunch of Ukrainian soldiers on the islands in the Dniepr River close to the dam and 2) they effectively enlarged the river, making it almost impassable for the Ukrainian forces. This essentially seals off that sector of the front, which allows Russia to divert troops to other regions. This has been the Russian strategy for the past 9 months – to stabilize the front behind the Dniepr River and concentrate their troops in the East.

Ukrainian Attacks – where?