Will Erdogan win yet again or can Kilicdaroglu prevail? We cover every step of the way with analysis and perspectives.
Mikkel is the lead author of The Great Game, our weekly editorial on geopolitics and global conflict. He is a former chief strategy consultant at PwC and Danish Ministry of Finance.
The Great Game – 7 takeaways from G7
Steno Research reporting live from Japan where the G7 meeting in Hiroshima just concluded yesterday. Here’s our 7 main takeaways
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The Great Game – China falling into its own debt trap?
As China has to battle defaulting governments and brewing civil war across the African continent, they begin to face many of the same sunk cost challenges as other global powers have over the decades. Are the Chinese falling into their own debt trap?
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Turkish Election Liveblog
Erdogan or Kilicdaroglu? Turkey heads to the polls and we are following every step of the way!
US Debt Countdown – The X-over data is APPROACHING! When will USD funding markets be impacted?
Tik-tok (do we even dare writing that now-a-days). The x-over date is approaching and in a continued bank failure scenario, the x-over date may be reached already during May. The USD funding market is about to get interesting. Here is why!
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The Great Game – Why No News from Ukraine? 4 important points and predictions
Why are we getting no news from the Ukrainian Spring Offensive? What is going on with Wagner? Here’s our take!
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Remember our Premium Q&A on Wednesday
Welcome to our first monthly Premium Q&A
If you’re not a Premium Subscriber, you can upgrade your subscription at any point before the Q&A, an you will gain access to the Q&A session – just go to https://stenoresearch.com/my-account/ and click “My Subscriptions”
Fed/ECB Liveblog
All eyes are on the Fed and ECB in the coming days! We have got you covered with our LIVEBLOG throughout Wednesday and Thursday.
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The Great Game – Is Biden Playing the Oil Card?
This week, we cover the sell-off of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Is Joe Biden using the Petroleum Reserve to keep the price at the pumps low or is he simply reacting rationally to OPEC production cuts?
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The Great Game – Ukrainian Spring Offensive – 3 things investors should look out for
The Ukrainian Spring Offensive is on the way. What should investors look out for? We cover the risks of increased sabotage in the Baltic, new migrant waves headed for Europe as well as disturbances in the global food prices.
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The Great Game – A New Migrant Wave into Europe?
A new migrant wave threatens Europe. How will the refugees be used as a tool of war or as an election game changer? We take a closer look at illegal migration to Europe and how the phenomenon continues to shape European politics and economics.
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The Great Game – Geopolitical Overview Q2 2023
If we learned anything from 2022, it’s that you need to keep your eye on geopolitics as an investor. Gone are the days of American hegemony – now, great power rivalry is back. We give our assessment of key geopolitical situations that investors need to be on top of in Q2 2023
The Great Game – Who’s calling the shots at OPEC?
OPEC’s sudden production cut stunned the world on Sunday. Who drove the decision and what does this tell us about OPEC’s future?
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The Great Game – The Chinese Subscription Plan
As Xi meets Putin – what is the Chinese endgame? What are they hoping to gain from supporting Russia? And how is this connected to your Tesla? To understand that, we must understand the Chinese subscription model!
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The Great Game: What to make of the Iran-Saudi Deal and Ukraine holding on to Bakhmut
Are the Chinese taking over management of the Middle East? Have Sweden given up on NATO? Why was I completely wrong about Bakhmut? Read all the answers in this year’s Great Game!
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De-Coupling or Detente? The Future of US-Chinese trade in the balance
For years, the US have struggled to find their footing vis-a-vis the new Chinese threat. We have seen countless attempts at “strategic pivots” and contructive meetings, but it’s no wonder if the Chinese are left with a feeling of confusion. What do the US actually want? What will be the next steps in Bidens “de-coupling” from China?
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CHINA WEEK: What does new 2023 growth targets signal about Xi’s priorities
China’s top legislature, the National People’s Congress (NPC), opened its annual meeting yesterday. The main highlight was the presentation of the new work report by outgoing Premier Li Keqiang which sets the 2023 fiscal targets for the Chinese economy. Later this week, Xi Jinping is expected to further consolidate his power with several high-profile appointments including the new Premier, vice-premiers, and the new governor of the central bank.
The Great Game – Pakistan’s Annus Horribilis
Later this year, Pakistan goes to the polls on top of what has been a right annus horribilis. What’s the outlook for the world’s only Muslim Nuclear Power and how will they solve it? We take a closer look at the three crises plagueing Pakistan.
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Europe Wants To Get Paid – 5 Feuds To Look Out For
A gap has opened between European wages and prices over the past 12 months. This naturally leads to heightened expectation for collective bargaining agreements across the continent. We point you to the most important battlegrounds for 2023
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The Great Game – Wang Yi and his Wish.com Weapons
What on Earth is China up to? We hear reports of them selling weapons to Russia and now top diplomat Wang Yi is touring Europe with a peace plan. Does he bring Wish.com weapons with him? Here’s our analysis!
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Introducing ‘The Problem Index’ – Which Countries Have the Worst Demographics?
Which countries have the absolute worst demographics? How can we use demographic indicators to forecast financial and political trouble? Learn more in our brand new Demographics Watch series!
Nigeria goes to the polls – What will happen if Obi wins?
ONE WEEK until “The Most Important Election of the Year”. Young disenfranchised Nigerians hope that outsider, Peter Obi, can shake-up a Nigerian democratic system in decline. Will he win, and what would that mean for Africa’s most populous country?
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“LIAR!” – What did Biden’s State of the Union signal about upcoming debt ceiling negotiation
Tuesday’s State of the Union address gave little cause for optimism that a looming debt crisis in the U.S. can be avoided. Speaker Kevin McCarthy, seemed as powerless as the day he was elected and Biden certainly didn’t make his life any easier.
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Ukraine Has Lost the Initiative – 3 Key Predictions on What’s Next
Hopes are high in the West with Leopards soon being let loose in Ukraine. But we see a much darker time ahead for the Ukrainians. We deliver you our 3 current conclusions and 3 key predictions on what’s next.
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The Great Game: Iran Under Attack – Our Quick Take
While still early days, it certainly seems like Iran is the target of a planned, organized wave of drone strikes. Is it a response to Friday’s attack on the Azeri embassy? Is it a US plot to halt Iran’s nuclear ambitions? What’s the endgame?
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Europolitics Watch #3 – A Continued European Surge?
European equities have seen an incredible start to 2023 on top of strong performance in late 2022. But European manufacturing and tech finds itself under pressure from massive public investments in both the US and China. What to make of the EU’s response and how is the outlook for Europe?
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The Great Game #10 – Qurans for Fighter Jets?
Who would have thought that a single Danish alt-right incel burning a book in Stockholm would have geopolitical consequences? Well, that is 2023 for you!
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Two New Words We Learned at Davos
The Globalization Elite is convening at Davos this week.. We see a lot of insight in two words rolling down from the Alps – “polycrisis” and “friendshoring”
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The Great Game #9 – Will China attack Taiwan?
Will China attack Taiwan? What is the Davidson Window? When will it all go down? Read our take and prediction here
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U.S Debt Ceiling Countdown #1 – USD liquidity to be added before the big political stand off
On Thursday, the U.S. hits its 31.4 trillion-dollar debt limit. If Congress fails to raise or suspend the limit, the U.S. risks defaulting on its foreign debt with global economic ramifications. So naturally, Steno Research is launching a new ‘U.S. Debt Countdown’ watch series to keep tabs on when the U.S reaches the magic ‘X Date’: the day when The Treasury runs out of ‘extraordinary measures’ to postpone the worst-case scenario, and must succumb to default.
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