Filter by Categories
Watch Series
The Great Game
Daily Post
Steno Signals
Free Content
Emerging Markets
Video

Something for your Espresso: Soft news right, left and center

Soft inflation news paired with dovish central bank vibes from the morning. The only major positive surprises arrive from countries that have already cut rates.
2024-07-10

Morning from Europe.

We are getting soft news right, left and center except from the high-beta economies in Sweden, Canada and to a certain extent the UK. This is a truly interesting pattern as it seems like countries already in rate-cutting mode are rebounding, while those countries with a longer duration profile lag the cyclical developments.

This also provides a playbook for what is likely going to happen once/if we move closer to insurance cuts in other G10 economies in coming quarters, and hinting that economic momentum is brewing beneath the hood of the global economy.

We are beginning to see indications of potential rate cuts from other central banks. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand stated that restrictive monetary policy has significantly lowered consumer price inflation, and the Committee is confident that headline inflation will fall within the 1 to 3 percent target range by the second half of this year. This reflects a notably softer tone than May and conviction in a rate cutting cycle commencing.

Chart 1: Rate cutters in the lead

Soft inflation news paired with dovish central bank vibes from the morning. The only major positive surprises arrive from countries that have already cut rates.

To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.

0 Comments