Are we seeing a repeat of the 2024 springtime China optimism in metals, or is this year’s bullishness more well-founded? Meanwhile, oil risk premia are rising amid renewed tensions in Yemen, and big demands from Putin in the truce-talks.
The gap between surveyed/anticipated inflation and measured inflation has been widening rapidly in recent weeks. Are surveys accurately predicting what’s ahead, or is inflation actually trending lower? Let’s take a closer look.
Everyone and their mother expects inflation to pick up due to tariffs and while that is a natural conclusion, it may take at least 2-3 months from here and we may get very soft inflation data in the meantime! Position accordingly
The headline hockey from the White House is reaching extremes as even The Donald disagrees with himself intraday it seems. US equities will not find a bottom until calm is restored in the white house, while bond yields aim for 3.75%!
Everyone is certain that inflation is coming back in force due to tariffs, and while that is admittedly the straightforward conclusion, current live observations suggest a different picture. Could inflation surprise to the downside?
So, the administration has simply re-labeled already seized Bitcoins, branding them as a “strategic reserve.” Nothing will be added, but there is a loophole for Howard Lutnick and the Trade Department to buy Bitcoin. Here’s why!
The price action and macro trends are starting to resemble those of early autumn 2024, which ultimately led to a material rate-cutting cycle. Could the Fed be stepping in sooner rather than later once again?
Tariff headlines continue to wrongfoot market participants, leaving the market misallocated relative to fundamentals. Today’s Chinese copper rally is the latest example—watch out!
The tariffs are largely priced in, and there are early signs of a “race to the bottom” as Trump’s reciprocal approach prompts countermeasures. Meanwhile, US macro surprises are weaker than those in Europe.
The January meeting minutes were much softer than expected, and QT is set to come to a halt this spring, with some inflationary effects being overlooked. This should pave the way for a weaker USD.
I have the contrarian take that reciprocal tariffs will ultimately be good news, and global trade may actually end up flourishing. This would leave the tariff trades running on fumes!
Alt-season may be suffering from a meme frenzy, but we remain confident that the business cycle will ultimately take over—even as figures like Dave Portnoy meme the hell out of it!
Reciprocal tariffs will put markets on the back foot right from the start of the week, leaving certain EMs highly vulnerable, while Europe remains well-positioned. Setting the noise aside, the 2025 cycle looks very promising.
“How would you go long the USD at the Wellington open?” is a clear hint of the current sentiment. Could the USD peak already today, and where is the money to be found in this environment? Trade suggestions for this week are attached!
There are (and will be) Trump headlines right, left and centre over the coming weeks. Trading macro is therefore all about being right on the core underlying macro trends and cutting out the policy noise!
What a weekend in Trump-land, set against a macroeconomic environment that, as far as I can tell, looks more like 2021 than 2017. If we cut through all the noise, it seems we’re still early in the business cycle—and things are accelerating once again.
Consensus is being torn apart from every direction—right, left, and center. This is typical in the early stages of a new trading year. So, what’s the current consensus, and how might it be wrongfooted? Let’s take a closer look!
Here’s a look at 2025 and how to trade macro. The short-term outlook remains heavily dependent on the debt ceiling, but there are reasons to be optimistic about risk assets in 2025.
Contrary to the current prevailing consensus, liquidity appears poised to improve significantly during January. The debt ceiling dynamics play a crucial role in this, as they directly influence the FOMC’s considerations.
Most risk-takers were caught off guard by Powell’s attempts to bring the Fed ahead of the hawkish repricing last week. Will this prove to be another incredibly ill-timed flip-flop from the Fed?
While China is moving nowhere and Europe remains paralyzed by political troubles, the US market Santa Rallies, especially in everything high-beta with a sensitivity to liquidity and bond yields.
Markets are back discussing inflation fears ahead of 2025, but is it really such a big thing? The outcome space for 2025 is huge and I am personally torn between the 2007 and 2021 analogy for now.
The U.S. inflation report provided a reassuring backdrop for risk assets. However, we anticipate the ECB to adopt a hawkish stance relative to market expectations today—a view that likely runs counter to public opinion. Here’s why.
The labor market report was weak enough to keep the Fed on an easing path but not weak enough to truly spook otherwise stretched risk asset markets. Here are four asymmetrical Santa Powell cases:
The trend shift in fixed income is remarkable and sharply contrarian to the post-Trump consensus. We expect more of the same ahead, coupled with a firm decision by the Fed to support liquidity in December. Meanwhile, gold may see a catalyst.
A very interesting set of meeting minutes was just released, revealing that the Fed is, in effect, discussing a put for USD liquidity. The Fed is considering changes to support liquidity developments as early as December.
Liquidity trends remain tighter than anticipated, primarily affecting government bond and repo markets. The current market frenzy actually needs a bit of bad news to provide the liquidity boost required to take the next step.
The liquidity situation remains tight, and this cycle continues to defy the norm. Will activity and inflation return before Powell and his peers truly get the chance to inject liquidity again?
A few wobbly days over the past 48 hours have left markets and pundits debating whether the Trump trade is exhausted. We view this as a dip to load up on.
We are writing history at the moment as EUR liquidity is getting more sought after than USD liquidity. This is a rare event in financial markets, and probably also a sign that the ECB is about to take it too far with QT.