With the first rate cut now in effect, the Swedish economy has suddenly become an interesting “lab” for observing cyclical growth and inflation trends. All indicators point to a re-acceleration in Sweden, which the rest of the world will likely follow.
It seems like old hat to discuss the weakness in labor markets as the cyclical vibes are getting stronger out of the high-beta economies globally. Will the US cycle follow suit?
The debate on whether this is a Burns or a Volcker-like scenario rages on, but re-inflationary forward-looking indicators are increasingly coming to light. This is particularly evident in countries that have already cut interest rates.
Another set of soft inflation numbers is set to be released from Europe in the coming weeks. We see both GBP and NOK inflation surprisingly low for November, while Swedish evidence is a tad more mixed.
European inflation numbers have already started to come in.. Will June look as soft as May? Probably not.. But inflation numbers are coming down, slowly but surely in Europe.
We find risks of a hawkish address from the Riksbank underappreciated and see 50bps as our base-case. The Riksbank needs to stop the bleeding in the SEK or at least attempt to and even the doves such as Flodén know it.
Risk appetite is back in markets while we wait for June inflation numbers in Europe. The big panel discussion at the Sintra conference will be closely watched today.
German inflation surprised on the low side of expectations and meanwhile Villeroy from the ECB also confidently talks about waning inflation. The bar remains high for a further hawkish repricing of central banks.
We now officially have POSITIVE real Fed Funds rates in the US, while we remain on inflation watch in Spain on Monday. European inflation is falling apart as well.
Who would have thought that a single Danish alt-right incel burning a book in Stockholm would have geopolitical consequences? Well, that is 2023 for you!