The USD weakness has been striking over the past trading week. Markets have extrapolated the softness in the US CPI from October, but is it fair? US data could perform strongly until New Year’s due to seasonality.
Seasonality Watch: Four charts that will make you go hmm…
Our working hypothesis continues to center around the current inflation pick-up resembling the September report from 2022 (released in October). Here are four charts that will make you go hmm…
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Steno Signals #36 – Why 50% of the current rebound is manufactured in a spreadsheet
We experience seasonal adjustments to an extent NEVER seen in time series history for CPI, Retail Sales and ISM numbers in January. Are we amidst a spreadsheet rebound or an actual economic rebound? We lean towards the former. Here is why…
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Something for your Espresso: What if it is not bad inflation..
Equity markets keep performing despite a front-end repricing of interest rates. If the consumer is really doing better than feared, then we are in for a different type of inflation compared to 2021/2022. And this time it is not as bad..
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