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ISM Seasonality

US rates nugget: 4 charts on why November data will reignite the hawks

The USD weakness has been striking over the past trading week. Markets have extrapolated the softness in the US CPI from October, but is it fair? US data could perform strongly until New Year's due to seasonality.
2023-11-21
<a href="https://stenoresearch.com/author/andreas/" target="_self">Andreas Steno</a>

Andreas Steno

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Welcome to this US rates nugget with three charts on why November data from the US economy could refuel the hawkish bias within the Federal Reserve.

First, our ISM Services model hints at a large rebound in the ISM number released on December 5. ISM Services jumps to >60 in our models when you adjust for the spreadsheet wizardry of the Institute of Supply Management (remember the abysmal prints in Nov/Dec of 2022) as the seasonal adjustment factors are much more helpful than a year ago. The opposite will happen in January/February.

Chart 1: ISM Services model

The USD weakness has been striking over the past trading week. Markets have extrapolated the softness in the US CPI from October, but is it fair? US data could perform strongly until New Year’s due to seasonality.

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