US rates nugget: 4 charts on why November data will reignite the hawks
Welcome to this US rates nugget with three charts on why November data from the US economy could refuel the hawkish bias within the Federal Reserve.
First, our ISM Services model hints at a large rebound in the ISM number released on December 5. ISM Services jumps to >60 in our models when you adjust for the spreadsheet wizardry of the Institute of Supply Management (remember the abysmal prints in Nov/Dec of 2022) as the seasonal adjustment factors are much more helpful than a year ago. The opposite will happen in January/February.
Chart 1: ISM Services model