Sovereign bond markets are performing poorly, even following bond market-friendly releases. What on earth is going on? Are we approaching another ‘whatever-it-takes’ moment from the G3 central banks?
Steno Signals #93 – Material stealth QT upcoming during a war economy
The US is effectively running a war economy and the ultimate headache is typically not seen until the production pace is slowed. Meanwhile, Yellen allows for stealth QT in upcoming weeks and months.
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Steno Signals #89: Major Twist to QE upcoming?
Chris Waller hinted of a twist to the QE operations, which will likely impact the yield curve in the US. Will the Twist operation support the procyclical trends already seen?
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USD Liquidity Watch: Trading the end of QT
As Lorie Logan hinted on Friday, the QT policy is running on fumes at the Fed, which leads us to ask the question; “How do we trade the QT taper and the subsequent more benign bank reserve bank case?”
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Steno Signals #79 – A Christmas present full of USD Liquidity from Powell and Yellen!
Risk assets are unlikely to sell off until the liquidity tricks come to a halt. Another trick up the Fed’s sleeve is now adding to USD liquidity ahead of New Years. A nice present from Powell and Yellen to banks!
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Money Watch: Is the BTFP just another form of QE?
A new abbreviation has made its way into the vocabulary of those with an interest in finance, markets, the state of the economy or all of the above. So, what is this ‘Bank Term Funding Program’, and does it really differ from QE in nature?
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Steno Signals #26 – Stealth QE through the back door?
Is it really a possible scenario that the Fed will do stealth-QE by summer 2023? And are equities still a sell based on USD liquidity plumbing? Get the answers here!
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Steno Signals #19 – 1, 2, 3, Central bank panic
Is BoE the patient zero in the fight against bond vigilantes? More panic could be upcoming from other central banks soon as real rates are shooting for the stars
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Stenos Signals #4 – Biden owns a printer, while Powell owns a flat iron
I remain of the view that it is inadvisable to make large portfolio changes during Geopolitical turbulence. Markets remain lukewarm despite the Russian aggression, so let’s look at the medium-term.
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