A pause is now the clear base case. The regional banking stress is now more equity/credit driven than deposit driven, which will be harder to backstop for the FDIC and the authorities. Will the ECB sound dovish?
Something for your Espresso: Every data print points to a pause
Everything released from the US economy this week speaks in favour of a pause. The NFP and CPI reports hold the potential to alter that view but the bar is high. We think the hiking cycle is over.
Something for your Espresso: Pause but with a hiking bias
The RBA paused with a hiking bias intact. Is this the short-term playbook for other Western central banks? RBNZ comes up later, while the ECB members have started to sound the alarm.