The ECB Hawks have taken significant steps towards a forthcoming policy pivot. But what if they remain on the backfoot?
Macro Nugget: The Eurozone horserace
The Eurozone bear case seems to finally be playing out but what is the current state in Europe? Bleak and divided are two words that spring to mind.
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5 Things We Watch: Banks, Liquidity, Debt Ceiling, Euro Area Positivity and USD Strength
Midweek has arrived and that calls for a rundown of the five things we watch the closest. As is the custom every Wednesday, we will take you through these most important themes (and charts) in macro and summarize how we interpret them.
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Out of the box #2: Back to austerity. Euro sovereign crisis vol 2?
The hardships brought about by Covid and the Ukraine war initially fostered political unity across Europe. In this article however, I will argue that fragmentation may soon regain prominence as liquidity diminishes, labor markets weaken, and governments face the need to implement tighter fiscal policies. These circumstances create a fertile ground for the resurgence of the zero-sum debtor/creditor conflict that characterized the 2010s.
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Something for your Espresso: Is the Euro “upswing” coming to an end?
Yesterday’s ZEW data revealed that the Euro upswing is getting closer to its end, while the news flow out of Commercial Real Estate continues to be negative
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Europolitics watch #2: The Tory Tragedy isn’t about division – it’s about defeatism
12 years of civil war in the Conservative party has trapped Rishi Sunak in a doom-loop between economic crisis and a defeatist Tory MP group. Will the 2024 general election clear the path for reform?
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Steno Signals #10 – How to position for a landslide in PMIs?
What happens in markets when the ISM Manufacturing index drops below 50 over the next quarter? We have looked across all assets with interesting findings.
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