Weak hiring including negative revisions, Services much weaker relative to trend, but Manufacturing is rebounding. Everything we planned for!
The labor market is the primary reason why everyone is blowing off the recession right now. But is the labor market really as strong as the recent NFP numbers suggest? We don’t necessarily think so.
The unwavering strength of the labor market has backstopped the probability of a classic recession, but is data now finally beginning to show what we have all predicted?
5 Things We Watch: Fed rhetoric, Chinese rebound, Chinese inventories, US labor market and a record-breaking yield curve inversion
Midweek has arrived and that calls for a rundown of the five things we watch the closest. As is the custom every Wednesday, we will take you through these most important themes (and charts) in macro and summarize how we interpret them.
Some have labeled 2022 a “white collar recession” as the job market has remained stable throughout. Are there early signs of weakening in US labor markets? And what would be the consequences? We look at 7 charts here.