Our political editor, Mikkel Rosenvold, stayed up late to watch the debate, and here are his takeaways:

Biden One Step Closer to Being Replaced in August

Wow, these Trump-Biden debates can be really tough to watch. The tension and hatred are so clear that it’s almost like watching your parents argue and yell at each other for an hour and a half.

In any case, here’s what I learned politically:

• Abortion will be a major campaign topic as the two candidates differ massively in their views on this issue.
• Both candidates seem to blame the inflation of past years on the pandemic and not much else. We got no real exchange of ideas on the federal deficit and its long-term effects.
• The tax system could be a major campaign issue, with Biden emphasizing “fairness” over the expected Trump tax cuts.

So, who won the debate? Betting markets are very clear in their conclusion that Biden’s performance was quite poor. He stumbled over words and made some very confusing remarks on key policy issues. His chances have plummeted if you look at betting markets, but only partially to Trump’s gain. Rather, other Democratic hopefuls like Gavin Newsom are rising in betting probabilities. This is, of course, a clear sign that Biden moved one step closer to being replaced as the candidate at the Democratic convention in August.

The deciding factor here is whether the Democratic establishment believes Biden can actually win. If that belief is lost, they will try and convince him to step down and replace him with Newsom, Harris, Obama, or someone else.

Chart 1: Biden lost this election debate by miles..