Morning from Europe.

We haven’t had a whole lot of luck in our inflation nowcasting this month admittedly, but our growth- and liquidity projections seem to be playing ball with our views still.

We released our monthly Macro Regime Monitor yesterday and we see the balance of risks moving closer to an outright Gung Ho (Goldilocks) scenario as goods re-inflation is still not showing up in the inflation numbers (outside of in Sweden and Norway).

For June/July, we see an increasing liquidity trend from right about now, while the growth- and inflation cycle cyclically heats up still, while some lagged effects pull in the opposite direction. From a market perspective, the overwhelming conclusion is that we will continue in an up, up, up macro regime referring to the liquidity cycle, growth cycle and cyclical price/inflation cycle.

The biggest “risk” to the above view is currently that we enter a scenario with rising liquidity, slowing inflation and improving cyclical growth at the same time. Goldilocks, anyone?

Chart 1: Our macro regime monitor