Filter by Categories
Watch Series
The Great Game
Daily Post
Steno Signals
Free sample
Emerging Markets
Video

Daily Post

Something for your Espresso is the Daily morning research letter from Steno Research. Occasional morning letters for the US based audience is also send out under the name Good Morning America

Something for your Espresso: Nothing happening is bond bearish

Something for your Espresso: Will anyone bother?

It is show- time for inflation but the sudden lack of interest in inflation is striking. The “street” whisper clearly expects a hot core inflation number, which makes us lean dovish for the report.

To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.

Good Morning America: Remember Spain?

Good Morning America: Remember Spain?

Inflation surprised on the downside in Spain, which is comforting news for the ECB. Inflation will prove to be of secondary relevance in coming months.

To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.

Something for your Espresso: Nothing happening is bond bearish

Something with your Espresso: Do you like the rates roller-coaster? We do…

Another day, another direction for rates. Banks are driving the show and the underlying question remains. Is this a true banking crisis or is it a tempest in a teapot? As true macro investors, we prefer to take a step back from the daily noise and watch the underlying trends. Amidst a renewed hawkish repricing yesterday the M2/M3 money growth measures were released in the Euro area. We have never seen the kind of destruction of money (and hence deposits) in the history of the Euro zone and if we look at similar data in the US, it looks even worse. The underlying quarterly growth numbers of money in Europe and the US are running at historically destructive levels. This is the true underlying reason for the deposit flight/destruction and the monetary policy is simply too tight by now. Chart 1: The quarterly pace of negative money growth in Europe is historic The trend remains very uniform across the West. Money growth is falling of a cliff from a sequential perspective and the banking crisis is likely to accelerate the trend as M2 growth is linked to the risk appetite of credit departments of banks. When various emergency facilities at the Fed (and other central banks) are getting maxed out, it is not a signal that banks are willing to add to the risk profile, rater the contrary. We know this drill and it is not reflationary. There is one spot on earth, and basically one spot only, with a […]

To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.

Something for your Espresso: Nothing happening is bond bearish

Something for your Espresso: The deposit flight continues

Both weekly and daily indicators of deposit flight continued to show signs of money leaving the banking system for money market funds, while banks continue to underperform. Will the Fed come to accept new all-time highs for the balance sheet?

To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.

Something for your Espresso: Nothing happening is bond bearish

Something for your Espresso: Bye bye to AT1 investors

Another hectic week is in the making and we don’t find risks to be contained yet. The Fed is likely to hike on Wednesday even if markets are screaming that they should rather cut. The first stages of the crisis playbook are playing out. The next will be true pivots from central banks.

Good Morning America: Remember Spain?

Good morning, America: The hiking cycle is over #2

Goldilocks data keeps coming from the US economy, while the ECB rhetoric hints of the hiking cycle potentially already being over. Here are our take-aways. The steepening will CONTINUE as the cycle is (almost) over.

To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.

Something for your Espresso: Nothing happening is bond bearish

Something for your Espresso: The hiking cycle is over

The hiking cycle seems over, even if inflation is running too hot. Lower rates are likely needed to resteepen the curve and tempt money back into deposits from bills and money market funds. The Fed is caught between a rock and hard place.

To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.

Something for your Espresso: Nothing happening is bond bearish

Something for your Espresso: Powell the flip-flopper

Powell is back as the hawk we knew from 2022, but the extreme data-dependency is volatility creating by design. One soft inflation and/or job report and we will back at where we were just a few weeks ago. Buckle up.

To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.