Something for your Espresso: Low hiring, low firing economy ahead of NFP
Morning from Europe.
The labour market is evidently cooling, but mostly from a hiring perspective. Lay-offs remain ultra low and we are probably stuck in a “low hiring, low firing” economy for now.
The openings indicator (YoY) has hinted of a recession since mid-2023 and yet the NFP measure has kept its head over water as lay-offs remain low.
Job openings growth has not really been a strong indicator for the NFP outside of the 2007-2008 crisis and the correlation is essentially non-existent since 2014.
Chart 1: Openings do not really predict NFP
We are approaching a make or break job report from the BLS later this Friday. In this morning’s analysis, we provide you with the full assessment of the current situation in the US labour market.
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