Beginning this week, we’re merging our weekly coverage of the energy/commodity space and geopolitics. This will allow us to be even more actionable and specific when analyzing global events, as the ramifications of war and peace are most often felt in the commodity...
As we head into the fall the BLS’ seasonal factors for adjusting inflation will work against Powell if he wants dovish prints to determine his data dependent path.
This week’s job report will likely decide whether 25 or 50 bp is most likely in September.. Is the crowd of wall street economists getting too worried or too upbeat? The entire crowd of economists agree that July was a fluke. To read the full article, sign up for a...
About a year ago, we discussed a “roadmap to a recession” and the market’s premature expectations of a near-term recession heading into 2025. We also identified what appeared to be a resurgence in inflation and manufacturing momentum last spring as...
The manufacturing rebound in H1 2024 was another head-fake, and we were correct in predicting that everyone would call off the recession. Now, the market is likely going to “reprice” the recession risk again. To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day...
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