Portfolio Watch: Markets discarding Q2 data due to Dudley?
2024-07-26The market is hellbent on pricing in cuts, even when the data is hawkish. This is an interesting dynamic and the FOMC/BoJ meetings next week will be key to gauging ...Macro Nugget: US equity risk premium below 1%.. time to worry?
2024-07-26As the equity risk premium dips below 1%, nearing levels seen during the Global Financial Crisis, should we all start the fire sale?Central Bank Watch – We are approaching the point where the market is losing its composure
2024-07-25All it took for markets to unwind their macro-divergence trades was Powell confirming the beginning of a new cycle by hinting at a September rate cut in advance, coupled with ...Scandi Watch: Norges Bank -> A hawk flying among doves?
2024-07-25The very mechanical rate path setup of Norges Bank allows us to track the rate path live, and in sharp contrast to elsewhere, it looks like we are ripe for ...Macro Nugget: EM PPI telling DM what to come?
2024-07-25Looks like we are not done talking about inflation just yet …EM Watch: Knock-outing the EM darlings, while inflation is returning in EM space
2024-07-24The current sell-off is driven by position squaring not least in USDJPY. The turning tide on USDJPY will impact the EM space largely and also knock-out a few EM darlings ...Equity Watch: Analyzing Rotation, Momentum, and Sentiment in the Equity Markets
2024-07-24Are small-caps back in fashion or was the rotation short-lived? We have looked at various factors of relevance to this question and the conclusion is that you should not jump ...Positioning Watch – There was no “rotation” from large to small caps
2024-07-24The equity scare seen throughout July with Nasdaq losing terrain against Russell was likely not the beginning of a longer rotation from large to small cap, but rather normalization of ...Macro Nugget: All time highs in flights around the globe
2024-07-24We are flying like never before!Business Cycle Watch: Why Sweden’s Resurging Momentum is a Must Watch
2024-07-23With the first rate cut now in effect, the Swedish economy has suddenly become an interesting “lab” for observing cyclical growth and inflation trends. All indicators point to a re-acceleration ...