Steno Signals #201 – The Mullahs Are Toast – re-inflation is back!
2025-06-16It seems Israel is going all-in on a regime shift—and they might actually get it. While this leaves the region facing an uncertain scenario, we struggle to see how Iran ...What We Told Hedge Funds: From Disinflation to Reflation
2025-06-13With the initial stockpiling wave behind us, supply shocks—such as the current one in the oil market—are likely to start impacting prices again. We have reached the bottom in inflation ...The Drill Extra – Israel strikes Iran
2025-06-13Israel struck Iran’s core defenses in a rare window of opportunity. Iran’s weak response so far suggests limited escalation ahead—and low near-term risk for oil and markets. To read the full ...The Drill – Metals, Magnets, and Momentum
2025-06-11Oil is grinding higher despite bearish supply dynamics, while precious metals—from platinum to palladium—are breaking out of multi-year downtrends. With the US-China deal unlocking industrial stimulus and positioning still light, ...Steno Signals #200 – The Liquidity Boom That Nobody Expects
2025-06-09While markets broadly agree that some sort of re-acceleration in inflation will happen over the summer, the ongoing liquidity boom—driven by the fiscal deficit and private credit creation—has gone under ...What We Told Hedge Funds: Fiscal Worries and Reciprocal Tariffs Out, Reflation and Sectorial Tariffs In
2025-06-06Markets may be noisy, but macro remains calm beneath the surface. Trump and Elon’s public spat is entertaining but economically empty, and meanwhile reflation continues to brew underneath the surface, ...The Drill – Geopolitical Risk Premia Are Back!
2025-06-04As geopolitical tremors from Ukraine to the Strait of Hormuz collide with a global trade thaw, markets are waking up to a new regime: strategic metals, defense stocks, and oil ...Steno Signals #199 – “Russia’s Pearl Harbor” Is USD-Negative
2025-06-02The situation in Ukraine and Russia demands attention, and it’s likely that Trump will need to shake things up to force a resolution. This may include imposing draconian measures on ...What We Told Hedge Funds: The road is cleared for all-time-highs
2025-05-30Markets are still underpricing the scale of the reflationary macro shift. Retail is all-in on the dip, but hedge funds remain stuck in doomsday mode. With CTAs cornered, tariff drama ...The Drill: Input prices about to go Nuclear
2025-05-28Trump needs to force an outcome from Putin, which means we are staring directly at increased sanctions. Could this lead input prices to skyrocket—especially in the nuclear industry? To read the ...