Positioning Watch – Hedge Funds Potentially Caught in the China Storm, While Retail Investors Keep Piling In
2024-10-09
After the turmoil in the Hang Seng/CSI this week, with the Hang Seng dropping roughly 10 percent, one would expect sentiment to decrease rather dramatically. However, that’s not the case ...China Watch: Elevator Up, Elevator Down… The Most Hated Rally in History?
2024-10-09
We saw the worst day in the Hang Seng since Lehman yesterday, but China used the opportunity to “feed the rally” with something to look forward to—a briefing on fiscal ...The Drill: No stimmie, no fun for China
2024-10-08China is getting slaughtered this morning as the “stimmie drug” is fizzling while geopolitical risk in crude is waning. We keep a negative bias on commodity markets as the China ...The Week at a Glance: No Country for Inflation Undershooting Men
2024-10-07Rates market dynamics have swiftly flipped, and the inflation releases this week will likely underpin the shift in sentiment. The labor market is the main reason to cut, not inflation. To ...Steno Signals #120 – Liquidity and rate cuts are incoming in an already OK economy
2024-10-06A better-than-feared jobs report, although somewhat “clouded” by a large public sector contribution. Overall, it seems like we are getting stimulus for an already stable economy, which is hard to ...Liquidity Watch: Houston, we have a liquidity/SOFR problem!
2024-10-03We’ve seen a significant spike in SOFR-EFFR spreads over the past 48 hours, which feels reminiscent of September 2019, though on a smaller scale. The Fed may be facing a ...China Liquidity Watch: USD easing allowed China to ease, but there is a caveat..
2024-10-02The USD market will be flooded with liquidity in Q4, accompanied by rate cuts, providing Chinese authorities with a window of opportunity to ease policy. However, there is one issue: ...Positioning Watch – NFP could really shuffle USD markets given current positioning
2024-10-02The outflow from US into EUR/GBP assets continues as everything seems to be more or less priced into USD assets, while China positioning continues to soar. How are markets positioned ...The Drill: This Chinese stimulus is aimed at the financial economy and NOT commodities
2024-10-01It is a market on autopilot that buys Copper and the likes because China is handing out vouchers. We remain unconvinced of a China-fuelled commodity rally here. Here is why. ...Week at a Glance – Squuuuuuuuuueeeeeeze!
2024-09-30China-sensitive shorts are getting squeezed left, right, and center ahead of a big week for key US figures. The “low hiring, low firing” narrative is likely to persist, but risk ...
