We have a last look at CFTC data to dissect how investors are positioned across asset classes going into 2024. Everyone and their mother is long bonds. Is it a worrying signal? Enjoy!
The steepening of the USD curve is the overarching market driver and we have thankfully partially rotated our portfolio in the right direction ahead of the move. How do you trade a steeper yield curve across assets? Our weekly portfolio update is out!
The summer lull is here, which normally calls for a quiet period in markets. But volatility might not be as low throughout July as a lot of people anticipated, which could force PMs back from the beaches. Follow along as we dissect how traders are positioned coming into the vacation season.
The Bank of England no longer sees a recession as the base-case, while a truckload of bank economists seems to be boarding the boat to soft landing island. Have traders followed along in positioning? Let’s see.
Cheers to the weekend everyone! And welcome back to your Positioning Watch series. The data is now up to speed again and you can always find ALL positioning data readily available in our datahub. We will highlight the most important conclusions weekly in this series. Equity positioning: Nasdaq positioning remains LONG – Nasdaq keeps up steam from the easter – Overall equity positioning remains short but the sentiment is not overly bearish across styles/s While the recent liquidity injection has offered tailwinds to equities we suspect fundamentals won’t justify the valuations as the sugar rush reverses. We could still see some optimism play out, but overall our long beta is running on fumes and thus trimmed down a tad FX Positioning: JPY is still unpopular – JPY positioning keeps bearish overall but a tad less than during easter – The EUR bet is still very consensusy, while BRL bullishness has lost a bit of steam – The USD positioning is long and BRL is slowly losing its favour among speculators We remain positive on BRL which seems cheap and offers good real rates in a world starving for inflation- safety. Suffice to say price action has yet to follow suit Commodity Positioning: Gold party is still on – Gold positioning may look stretched and plenty of profits could be ripe for taking. But positioning remains long for now – Energy still hasn’t got the recession memo On the surface, it may look as if oil is simply proxying expectations of […]
We have looked at fund flows now that CFTC data on positioning remains unavailable due to a data-issue. Bond speculation is getting short again, while investors are not buying the rebounds in the USD and Tech/Discretionary stocks